Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 29/08, 17:30

Prediction: KuPS (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)

Team pages: KuPS (W) · IF Gnistan (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

KuPS (W)2.59

IF Gnistan (W)0.69

1X2

78% 15% 7%

KuPS (W) Draw IF Gnistan (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

KuPS (W) 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLWLWW

IF Gnistan (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLDLLWL

Head-to-head

KuPS (W) 4–0 IF Gnistan (W) (4 last)

IF Gnistan (W)0-1KuPS (W)
IF Gnistan (W)0-2KuPS (W)
KuPS (W)2-1IF Gnistan (W)
IF Gnistan (W)0-2KuPS (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KuPS (W) 1536 · IF Gnistan (W) 1438

	KuPS (W)	Draw	IF Gnistan (W)
Our model	77%	16%	7%
Market	78%	15%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KuPS (W) (rating 1536 vs 1438).
H2H favours KuPS (W): 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KuPS (W)	IF Gnistan (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.17

X6.25

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.82

2 (+2)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.17▼	Bet365 1.17
X	6.00 → 6.25▲	Bet365 6.25
2	9.50 → 12.00▲	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:07 +9’	1.18	6.00	9.50
09:29 +6’	1.17▼	6.25▲	12.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KuPS (W) 4–0–0 IF Gnistan (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	IF Gnistan (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	KuPS (W)
17/06/26 Finland Cup Women	IF Gnistan (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	KuPS (W)
22/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	KuPS (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	IF Gnistan (W)
18/01/26 Finland Cup Women	IF Gnistan (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	KuPS (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	17	14	1	2	44	14	43
2	Aland United (W)	17	12	1	4	49	22	37
3	KuPS (W)	17	11	1	5	36	25	34
4	HPS (W)	17	8	4	5	26	22	28
5	Ilves (W)	17	7	1	9	29	33	22
6	IF Gnistan (W)	17	5	1	11	26	39	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KuPS (W)	IF Gnistan (W)
Ilves (W)	2-1 W	2-1 W
HJK (W)	1-0 W	1-3 L
HPS (W)	2-3 L	0-4 L
Aland United (W)	1-3 L	2-3 L
VIFK (W)	5-1 W	1-0 W
PK-35 Vantaa (W)	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: KuPS (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KuPS (W)

LWWLLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
17/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
08/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-3	3	5	L
25/07	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
18/07	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-3	5	6	L
12/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	2-4	8	4	L
04/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
27/06	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	5-1	9	2	W
12/06	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
29/05	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-1	2-3	6	6	L

IF Gnistan (W)

LLWWLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
15/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
12/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-3	1	2	L
25/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
18/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	2-2	6	0	D
12/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
05/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
27/06	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	3-0	7	1	W
13/06	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-4	3	3	L
31/05	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-4	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KuPS (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KuPS (W) win (78%). Probabilities: KuPS (W) 78%, draw 15%, IF Gnistan (W) 7%.

How many goals are expected in KuPS (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

The model expects 3.28 goals (KuPS (W) 2.59 · IF Gnistan (W) 0.69), with a 58% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KuPS (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.