Football · Poland III Liga · 31/07, 19:00

Prediction: KTS Weszlo vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

KTS Weszlo1.72

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1.61

1X2

40% 25% 35%

KTS Weszlo Draw Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

KTS Weszlo 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KTS Weszlo 1563 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1498

	KTS Weszlo	Draw	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KTS Weszlo (rating 1563 vs 1498).
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KTS Weszlo	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	4.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 2.25▼	Bet365 2.25
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	1.91 → 2.55▲	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:24 +44’	3.10	3.75	1.91
08:57 +10’	2.25▼	3.60▼	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelmianka Chelm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Czarni Polaniec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hetman Zamosc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JKS Jaroslaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KSZO Ostrowiec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moravia Morawica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naprzod Jedrzejow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Star Starachowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisloka Debica	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

KTS Weszlo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	CK Troszyn Club Friendly List	1-1	6-2	–	–	W
06/06	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland IV Liga	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
09/05	Mazur Karczew Poland IV Liga	1-1	1-2	9	7	L
02/05	MKS Przasnysz Poland IV Liga	4-0	5-0	4	0	W
27/03	Talent Warsaw Poland IV Liga	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
14/03	KS Lomianki Poland IV Liga	2-2	4-2	7	2	W
21/11	Ozarowianka Ozarow Poland IV Liga	0-2	2-2	7	8	D
08/11	Blonianka Blonie Poland IV Liga	1-0	3-2	12	5	W
31/10	Marcovia Marki Poland IV Liga	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
18/10	Hutnik Warsaw Poland IV Liga	1-0	1-3	1	7	L

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	7	6	L
17/05	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
13/05	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
09/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
02/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	8	1	L
25/04	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	11	5	W
18/04	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
11/04	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
04/04	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	3-0	3-2	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KTS Weszlo vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KTS Weszlo win (40%). Probabilities: KTS Weszlo 40%, draw 25%, Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 35%.

How many goals are expected in KTS Weszlo vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

The model expects 3.34 goals (KTS Weszlo 1.72 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1.61), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in KTS Weszlo vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.