Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 16/08, 18:00

Prediction: Limianos vs Chaves B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Limianos1.52

Chaves B1.21

1X2

43% 28% 29%

Limianos Draw Chaves B

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Limianos 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Chaves B 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLWWDD

Head-to-head

Limianos 1–2–1 Chaves B (4 last)

Chaves B3-0Limianos
Limianos2-2Chaves B
Limianos2-0Chaves B
Chaves B1-1Limianos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Limianos 1497 · Chaves B 1516

	Limianos	Draw	Chaves B
Our model	43%	28%	29%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Limianos	Chaves B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.3	1.6 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:08 +3’	2.10	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Limianos 1–2–1 Chaves B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Chaves B	3-0 HT 2-0	Limianos
07/12/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Limianos	2-2 HT 0-0	Chaves B
05/05/19 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Limianos	2-0	Chaves B
06/01/19 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Chaves B	1-1 HT 0-0	Limianos

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Limianos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ponte Barca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brito SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Celoricense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montalegre	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Tirsense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Vinhais	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Braganca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chaves B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maia Lidador	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rebordosa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Braga B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Maria da Fonte	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vila Mea	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Limianos	Chaves B
FC Tirsense	0-0 D	1-1 D
CD Ribeira Brava	3-0 W	2-0 W
Braganca	1-4 L	1-1 D
Desportivo Moncao	4-1 W	4-1 W
SC Mirandela	0-0 D	1-2 L
CD Celoricense	1-1 D	1-2 L
Vilaverdense	4-1 W	1-1 D
AD Camacha	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Limianos (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Limianos

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	SC Vianense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	1-4	3	3	L
12/04	FC Tirsense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
04/04	Chaves B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
25/03	CD Ribeira Brava Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	3-0	6	1	W
22/03	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-4	5	6	L
15/03	Desportivo Moncao Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	4-1	4	3	W
08/03	SC Mirandela Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
22/02	CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	3	9	D
15/02	Vilaverdense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	4-1	5	2	W
08/02	AD Camacha Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-2	2	8	D

Chaves B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	FC Tirsense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
12/04	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
04/04	Limianos Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	3-0	2	5	W
22/03	Desportivo Moncao Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	4-1	4	4	W
15/03	SC Mirandela Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
08/03	CD Ribeira Brava Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
01/03	CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
22/02	Vilaverdense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
15/02	AD Camacha Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
08/02	AD Machico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Limianos vs Chaves B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Limianos win (43%). Probabilities: Limianos 43%, draw 28%, Chaves B 29%.

How many goals are expected in Limianos vs Chaves B?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Limianos 1.52 · Chaves B 1.21), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Limianos vs Chaves B?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.