Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 16/08, 17:00

Prediction: AD Camacha vs Salgueiros

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

AD Camacha0.92

Salgueiros1.26

1X2

26% 32% 43%

AD Camacha Draw Salgueiros

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

AD Camacha 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Salgueiros 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWLLDW

Head-to-head

AD Camacha 3–2–1 Salgueiros (6 last)

Salgueiros2-0AD Camacha
AD Camacha1-1Salgueiros
AD Camacha2-1Salgueiros
Salgueiros0-2AD Camacha
Salgueiros0-1AD Camacha
AD Camacha1-1Salgueiros

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Camacha 1497 · Salgueiros 1476

	AD Camacha	Draw	Salgueiros
Our model	26%	31%	43%
Market	26%	32%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AD Camacha: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Camacha	Salgueiros
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	0.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.3	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.5	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.50

X2.80

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:44 +9’	3.50	2.80	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Camacha 3–2–1 Salgueiros

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Salgueiros	2-0 HT 0-0	AD Camacha
05/01/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Camacha	1-1 HT 0-1	Salgueiros
12/03/23 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Camacha	2-1 HT 1-1	Salgueiros
27/11/22 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Salgueiros	0-2 HT 0-1	AD Camacha
27/01/18 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Salgueiros	0-1 HT 0-0	AD Camacha
10/09/17 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Camacha	1-1 HT 0-0	Salgueiros

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	D	Pts
1	AD Machico	1	1	1
1	Estrela da Calheta FC	1	1	1
3	AD Camacha	0	0	0
3	AD Castro Daire	0	0	0
3	AD Ovarense	0	0	0
3	AD Sanjoanense	0	0	0
3	Cinfaes	0	0	0
3	Uniao de Lamas	0	0	0
3	FC Alpendorada	0	0	0
3	Florgrade FC	0	0	0
3	Guarda Desportiva	0	0	0
3	Salgueiros	0	0	0
3	Beira Mar	0	0	0
3	UD Sousense	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AD Camacha

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
12/04	Vilaverdense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	3-0	6	0	W
29/03	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
22/03	AD Machico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
15/03	Brito SC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	2-4	6	7	L
08/03	Sao Martinho Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	3-0	6	2	W
01/03	SC Vianense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
21/02	FC Tirsense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
15/02	Chaves B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
08/02	Limianos Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-2	3	8	D

Salgueiros

LDLDLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Trofense Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	1	0	W
18/04	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/04	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
04/04	Cinfaes Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	5	1	L
22/03	Florgrade FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
15/03	Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	1-3	3	13	L
08/03	SC Vila Real Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
01/03	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
22/02	Aparecida FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
15/02	GD Resende Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Camacha vs Salgueiros?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Salgueiros win (43%). Probabilities: AD Camacha 26%, draw 32%, Salgueiros 43%.

How many goals are expected in AD Camacha vs Salgueiros?

The model expects 2.17 goals (AD Camacha 0.92 · Salgueiros 1.26), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Camacha vs Salgueiros?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.