Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 16/08, 18:00

Prediction: O Elvas vs Fatima

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

O Elvas1.34

Fatima1

1X2

44% 30% 27%

O Elvas Draw Fatima

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

O Elvas 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLDLWDD

Fatima 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWLLLDWW

Head-to-head

O Elvas 2–1–1 Fatima (4 last)

O Elvas2-1Fatima
Fatima3-1O Elvas
O Elvas1-0Fatima
Fatima0-0O Elvas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · O Elvas 1489 · Fatima 1502

	O Elvas	Draw	Fatima
Our model	43%	30%	27%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours O Elvas: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	O Elvas	Fatima
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.10

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:55 +15’	2.05	3.10	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · O Elvas 2–1–1 Fatima

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	O Elvas	2-1 HT 1-0	Fatima
04/05/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Fatima	3-1 HT 3-1	O Elvas
29/03/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	O Elvas	1-0 HT 1-0	Fatima
08/12/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Fatima	0-0 HT 0-0	O Elvas

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AT Malveira	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fazendense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AD Nogueirense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fatima	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alverca B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oliveira Hospital	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	GD Os Nazarenos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mortagua FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naval 1893	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	O Elvas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CF Os Marialvas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sertanense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Benfica e Castelo Branco	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD da Serra	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

O Elvas

LLWWLDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	Moncarapachense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
12/04	Comercio Industria Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
04/04	Serpa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	3-2	8	8	W
22/03	Alcochetense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
15/03	Clube Oriental Lisboa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
08/03	Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	1-2	4	4	L
01/03	GD Lagoa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	4-0	3	4	W
22/02	Juventude de Evora Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-1	2	9	W
15/02	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
07/02	SU Sintrense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	1-2	2	5	L

Fatima

DDDWLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	Benfica e Castelo Branco Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	4-1	3	8	W
12/04	Electrico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	3-0	10	5	W
04/04	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	2-2	4	6	D
29/03	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
22/03	CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
15/03	Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
08/03	Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	1	0	W
01/03	Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
22/02	Samora Correia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	2-2	9	2	D
14/02	GD Peniche Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in O Elvas vs Fatima?

According to our model, the most likely result is a O Elvas win (44%). Probabilities: O Elvas 44%, draw 30%, Fatima 27%.

How many goals are expected in O Elvas vs Fatima?

The model expects 2.33 goals (O Elvas 1.34 · Fatima 1), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in O Elvas vs Fatima?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.