Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 16/08, 18:00

Prediction: AT Malveira vs CF Os Marialvas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

AT Malveira1.24

CF Os Marialvas0.84

1X2

45% 30% 25%

AT Malveira Draw CF Os Marialvas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

AT Malveira 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLLDLD

CF Os Marialvas 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWWDWDLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AT Malveira 1485 · CF Os Marialvas 1501

	AT Malveira	Draw	CF Os Marialvas
Our model	44%	32%	24%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AT Malveira	CF Os Marialvas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	2.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.20

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:05 +5’	1.95	3.20	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AT Malveira	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fazendense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AD Nogueirense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fatima	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alverca B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oliveira Hospital	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	GD Os Nazarenos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mortagua FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naval 1893	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	O Elvas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CF Os Marialvas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sertanense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Benfica e Castelo Branco	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD da Serra	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AT Malveira

WDWLWLLDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
23/05	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-3	2	6	L
17/05	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
10/05	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	0-2	5	10	L
26/04	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	1-2	5	7	L
18/04	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	2-1	3	8	W
12/04	SU Sintrense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
04/04	Portimonense B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
22/03	GD Lagoa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	1	10	D
15/03	Vasco Da Gama Vidigueira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	4-1	3	6	W

CF Os Marialvas

DLDWWDWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Sao Joao Ver Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
18/04	Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
12/04	Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
04/04	Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/03	UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
22/03	Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
15/03	Samora Correia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
11/03	AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
07/03	GD Peniche Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-3	11	3	L
01/03	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AT Malveira vs CF Os Marialvas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AT Malveira win (45%). Probabilities: AT Malveira 45%, draw 30%, CF Os Marialvas 25%.

How many goals are expected in AT Malveira vs CF Os Marialvas?

The model expects 2.08 goals (AT Malveira 1.24 · CF Os Marialvas 0.84), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AT Malveira vs CF Os Marialvas?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.