Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 16/08, 18:00

Prediction: Naval 1893 vs UD da Serra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Naval 18931.7

UD da Serra0.8

1X2

58% 26% 16%

Naval 1893 Draw UD da Serra

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Naval 1893 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDLLWWWWDW

UD da Serra 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDLWL

Head-to-head

Naval 1893 0–2 UD da Serra (2 last)

UD da Serra2-0Naval 1893
Naval 18933-5UD da Serra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Naval 1893 1519 · UD da Serra 1564

	Naval 1893	Draw	UD da Serra
Our model	58%	26%	16%
Market	58%	26%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UD da Serra (rating 1519 vs 1564).
H2H favours UD da Serra: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Naval 1893	UD da Serra
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.7	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.3	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:04 +6’	1.55	3.50	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Naval 1893 0–0–2 UD da Serra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	UD da Serra	2-0 HT 1-0	Naval 1893
24/08/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Naval 1893	3-5 HT 1-2	UD da Serra

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AT Malveira	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fazendense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AD Nogueirense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fatima	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alverca B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oliveira Hospital	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	GD Os Nazarenos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mortagua FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naval 1893	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	O Elvas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CF Os Marialvas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sertanense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Benfica e Castelo Branco	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD da Serra	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Naval 1893	UD da Serra
GD Vitoria de Sernache	2-0 W	0-0 D
CF Os Marialvas	0-0 D	1-1 D
Juventude Desportiva Lajense	2-1 W	1-0 W
Samora Correia	2-1 W	2-4 L
AC Marinhense	1-2 L	1-0 W
GD Peniche	0-2 L	3-1 W
Oliveira Hospital	0-0 D	0-2 L
Lusitania	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Naval 1893

DDLLWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
12/04	CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
04/04	Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
22/03	Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-0	6	0	W
15/03	Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
08/03	Samora Correia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	7	7	W
04/03	AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
28/02	GD Peniche Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	6	1	L
22/02	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
08/02	Lusitania Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	11	1	D

UD da Serra

DWWWWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	Samora Correia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	2-4	7	8	L
12/04	GD Peniche Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
04/04	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	1	6	L
29/03	CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
22/03	AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
15/03	Lusitania Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
08/03	Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	10	W
01/03	Benfica e Castelo Branco Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	10	3	W
22/02	Electrico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	4-2	10	6	W
15/02	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Naval 1893 vs UD da Serra?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Naval 1893 win (58%). Probabilities: Naval 1893 58%, draw 26%, UD da Serra 16%.

How many goals are expected in Naval 1893 vs UD da Serra?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Naval 1893 1.7 · UD da Serra 0.8), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Naval 1893 vs UD da Serra?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.