Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 16/08, 18:00

Prediction: Oliveira Hospital vs Benfica e Castelo Branco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Oliveira Hospital1.66

Benfica e Castelo Branco0.64

1X2

62% 25% 13%

Oliveira Hospital Draw Benfica e Castelo Branco

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Oliveira Hospital 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDWDLD

Benfica e Castelo Branco 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDDWLL

Head-to-head

Oliveira Hospital 1–3–2 Benfica e Castelo Branco (6 last)

Benfica e Castelo Branco1-1Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital2-0Benfica e Castelo Branco
Oliveira Hospital2-2Benfica e Castelo Branco
Benfica e Castelo Branco1-1Oliveira Hospital
Benfica e Castelo Branco1-0Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital1-3Benfica e Castelo Branco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oliveira Hospital 1539 · Benfica e Castelo Branco 1516

	Oliveira Hospital	Draw	Benfica e Castelo Branco
Our model	61%	26%	13%
Market	62%	24%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Benfica e Castelo Branco: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oliveira Hospital	Benfica e Castelo Branco
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	2.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.44

X3.70

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:54 +16’	1.44	3.70	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oliveira Hospital 1–3–2 Benfica e Castelo Branco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Benfica e Castelo Branco	1-1 HT 0-1	Oliveira Hospital
29/11/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Oliveira Hospital	2-0 HT 1-0	Benfica e Castelo Branco
16/05/21 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Oliveira Hospital	2-2 HT 1-1	Benfica e Castelo Branco
24/04/21 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Benfica e Castelo Branco	1-1 HT 0-1	Oliveira Hospital
27/02/21 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Benfica e Castelo Branco	1-0 HT 0-0	Oliveira Hospital
29/11/20 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Oliveira Hospital	1-3 HT 0-1	Benfica e Castelo Branco

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AT Malveira	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fazendense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AD Nogueirense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fatima	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alverca B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oliveira Hospital	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	GD Os Nazarenos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mortagua FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naval 1893	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	O Elvas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CF Os Marialvas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sertanense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Benfica e Castelo Branco	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD da Serra	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oliveira Hospital	Benfica e Castelo Branco
GD Vitoria de Sernache	0-0 D	0-0 D
AC Marinhense	3-0 W	1-0 W
Lusitania	2-1 W	2-0 W
UD da Serra	2-0 W	0-2 L
Fatima	2-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Oliveira Hospital (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oliveira Hospital

WWWWLDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	9	7	D
23/05	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-2	4	12	L
17/05	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/05	AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	2-0	1	10	W
03/05	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
26/04	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-2	7	5	L
18/04	AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	3-0	8	3	W
12/04	Lusitania Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
04/04	UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-0	11	6	W
29/03	Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-0	2	5	W

Benfica e Castelo Branco

WWLWWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-4	3	8	L
12/04	Samora Correia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	9	4	L
04/04	GD Peniche Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
25/03	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
21/03	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
15/03	AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
08/03	Lusitania Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
01/03	UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
21/02	Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	3-2	1	6	W
15/02	Electrico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	6-1	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oliveira Hospital vs Benfica e Castelo Branco?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oliveira Hospital win (62%). Probabilities: Oliveira Hospital 62%, draw 25%, Benfica e Castelo Branco 13%.

How many goals are expected in Oliveira Hospital vs Benfica e Castelo Branco?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Oliveira Hospital 1.66 · Benfica e Castelo Branco 0.64), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Oliveira Hospital vs Benfica e Castelo Branco?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.