Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 16/08, 18:00

Prediction: Uniao de Lamas vs Florgrade FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Uniao de Lamas1.15

Florgrade FC1.01

1X2

39% 30% 32%

Uniao de Lamas Draw Florgrade FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Uniao de Lamas 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWDLDD

Florgrade FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWDWLDLW

Head-to-head

Uniao de Lamas 0–2 Florgrade FC (2 last)

Uniao de Lamas0-1Florgrade FC
Florgrade FC2-1Uniao de Lamas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Uniao de Lamas 1476 · Florgrade FC 1523

	Uniao de Lamas	Draw	Florgrade FC
Our model	38%	32%	30%
Market	40%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Florgrade FC (rating 1476 vs 1523).
H2H favours Florgrade FC: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Uniao de Lamas	Florgrade FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.1	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.25

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:02 +6’	2.25	3.25	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Uniao de Lamas 0–0–2 Florgrade FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Uniao de Lamas	0-1 HT 0-0	Florgrade FC
05/10/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Florgrade FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Uniao de Lamas

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	D	Pts
1	AD Machico	1	1	1
1	Estrela da Calheta FC	1	1	1
3	AD Camacha	0	0	0
3	AD Castro Daire	0	0	0
3	AD Ovarense	0	0	0
3	AD Sanjoanense	0	0	0
3	Cinfaes	0	0	0
3	Uniao de Lamas	0	0	0
3	FC Alpendorada	0	0	0
3	Florgrade FC	0	0	0
3	Guarda Desportiva	0	0	0
3	Salgueiros	0	0	0
3	Beira Mar	0	0	0
3	UD Sousense	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Uniao de Lamas	Florgrade FC
Salgueiros	0-0 D	0-2 L
Beira Mar	0-4 L	1-0 W
Anadia	0-0 D	2-2 D
CD Gouveia	2-0 W	2-0 W
FC Alpendorada	1-0 W	2-2 D
Cinfaes	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Uniao de Lamas

LLLWWWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Feirense Europe Friendlies	2-2	2-2	0	3	D
18/04	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/04	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-4	2	6	L
04/04	Anadia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
22/03	CD Gouveia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
15/03	Vila Mea Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
08/03	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
01/03	Cinfaes Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
22/02	Florgrade FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
15/02	Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-4	1	11	L

Florgrade FC

DDWWDWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	3	0	W
12/04	Aparecida FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	1-4	8	1	L
04/04	GD Resende Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/03	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
15/03	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
08/03	Anadia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	2-2	4	3	D
01/03	CD Gouveia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
22/02	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/02	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
07/02	Cinfaes Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Uniao de Lamas vs Florgrade FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Uniao de Lamas win (39%). Probabilities: Uniao de Lamas 39%, draw 30%, Florgrade FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Uniao de Lamas vs Florgrade FC?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Uniao de Lamas 1.15 · Florgrade FC 1.01), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Uniao de Lamas vs Florgrade FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.