Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 16/08, 18:00

Prediction: AD Sanjoanense vs Beira Mar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

AD Sanjoanense1.52

Beira Mar1.15

1X2

45% 28% 28%

AD Sanjoanense Draw Beira Mar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

AD Sanjoanense 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDDDLWWL

Beira Mar 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLDLDWWW

Head-to-head

AD Sanjoanense 0–1–2 Beira Mar (3 last)

AD Sanjoanense0-1Beira Mar
AD Sanjoanense0-0Beira Mar
Beira Mar2-0AD Sanjoanense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Sanjoanense 1481 · Beira Mar 1534

	AD Sanjoanense	Draw	Beira Mar
Our model	45%	28%	27%
Market	45%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Beira Mar (rating 1481 vs 1534).
H2H favours Beira Mar: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Sanjoanense	Beira Mar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.6	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.5	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:52 +15’	2.00	3.25	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Sanjoanense 0–1–2 Beira Mar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/07/24 Europe Friendlies	AD Sanjoanense	0-1 HT 0-0	Beira Mar
31/01/21 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Sanjoanense	0-0 HT 0-0	Beira Mar
18/10/20 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Beira Mar	2-0 HT 0-0	AD Sanjoanense

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	D	Pts
1	AD Machico	1	1	1
1	Estrela da Calheta FC	1	1	1
3	AD Camacha	0	0	0
3	AD Castro Daire	0	0	0
3	AD Ovarense	0	0	0
3	AD Sanjoanense	0	0	0
3	Cinfaes	0	0	0
3	Uniao de Lamas	0	0	0
3	FC Alpendorada	0	0	0
3	Florgrade FC	0	0	0
3	Guarda Desportiva	0	0	0
3	Salgueiros	0	0	0
3	Beira Mar	0	0	0
3	UD Sousense	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AD Sanjoanense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/05	Sao Joao Ver Portugal Liga 3	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
26/04	Paredes Portugal Liga 3	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
19/04	Braga B Portugal Liga 3	1-0	2-1	5	10	W
11/04	AD Fafe Portugal Liga 3	0-3	2-3	13	8	L
21/03	AD Marco 09 Portugal Liga 3	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
15/03	Braga B Portugal Liga 3	0-1	2-2	3	6	D
08/03	AD Marco 09 Portugal Liga 3	1-1	1-1	7	8	D
01/03	AD Fafe Portugal Liga 3	2-1	2-3	2	6	L
22/02	Paredes Portugal Liga 3	0-2	1-3	6	9	L
14/02	Sao Joao Ver Portugal Liga 3	1-1	1-1	4	4	D

Beira Mar

WWLLDLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	CD Gouveia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
12/04	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	4-0	8	6	W
04/04	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
22/03	Cinfaes Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
15/03	Florgrade FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
08/03	Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
01/03	SC Vila Real Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
22/02	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
15/02	Aparecida FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-1	5-1	4	5	W
07/02	GD Resende Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Sanjoanense vs Beira Mar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Sanjoanense win (45%). Probabilities: AD Sanjoanense 45%, draw 28%, Beira Mar 28%.

How many goals are expected in AD Sanjoanense vs Beira Mar?

The model expects 2.67 goals (AD Sanjoanense 1.52 · Beira Mar 1.15), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Sanjoanense vs Beira Mar?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.