Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 16/08, 18:00

Prediction: Juventude de Evora vs Alcochetense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

Juventude de Evora1.11

Alcochetense0.97

1X2

38% 31% 31%

Juventude de Evora Draw Alcochetense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Juventude de Evora 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWLDDDWDWW

Alcochetense 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLWDDWLWDW

Head-to-head

Juventude de Evora 0–2–0 Alcochetense (2 last)

Juventude de Evora1-1Alcochetense
Alcochetense1-1Juventude de Evora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juventude de Evora 1542 · Alcochetense 1532

	Juventude de Evora	Draw	Alcochetense
Our model	37%	33%	30%
Market	39%	29%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juventude de Evora	Alcochetense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.7	3.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.10

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:45 +21’	2.30	3.10	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juventude de Evora 0–2–0 Alcochetense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Juventude de Evora	1-1 HT 1-0	Alcochetense
09/11/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Alcochetense	1-1 HT 1-0	Juventude de Evora

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group D

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alcochetense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Amora	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Serpa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	GD Lagoa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	GD Portel	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Imortal DC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Juventude Desportiva Lajense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Juventude de Evora	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sport Clube Queluz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Santa Clara Azores B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Mineiro Aljustrelense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SU Sintrense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vitoria Setubal	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juventude de Evora	Alcochetense
Vasco Da Gama Vidigueira	4-1 W	0-0 D
Clube Oriental Lisboa	2-2 D	1-1 D
Alverca B	1-1 D	1-0 W
O Elvas	1-2 L	2-0 W
GD Lagoa	2-1 W	2-1 W
Louletano DC	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juventude de Evora

DWLDDDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	Vasco Da Gama Vidigueira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	4-1	11	2	W
12/04	Moncarapachense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
04/04	Comercio Industria Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
22/03	Serpa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	3-0	0	6	W
15/03	Alcochetense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	5	10	D
08/03	Clube Oriental Lisboa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-2	1	3	D
01/03	Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
22/02	O Elvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-2	5	9	L
15/02	GD Lagoa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
07/02	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	5	7	D

Alcochetense

DLWDDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	GD Lagoa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	10	9	W
12/04	Clube Oriental Lisboa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
04/04	Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
28/03	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
22/03	O Elvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
15/03	Juventude de Evora Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	3	10	D
01/03	SU Sintrense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
22/02	Portimonense B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
15/02	AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
07/02	Vasco Da Gama Vidigueira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	9	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juventude de Evora vs Alcochetense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Juventude de Evora win (38%). Probabilities: Juventude de Evora 38%, draw 31%, Alcochetense 31%.

How many goals are expected in Juventude de Evora vs Alcochetense?

The model expects 2.09 goals (Juventude de Evora 1.11 · Alcochetense 0.97), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Juventude de Evora vs Alcochetense?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.