Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 06/09, 22:00

Prediction: Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes LP

Team pages: Velez Sarsfield · Estudiantes LP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.89Total

Velez Sarsfield1.08

Estudiantes LP0.81

1X2

41% 33% 26%

Velez Sarsfield Draw Estudiantes LP

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Velez Sarsfield 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWDDDD

Estudiantes LP 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWLLWL

Head-to-head

Velez Sarsfield 3–1–2 Estudiantes LP (6 last)

Estudiantes LP0-1Velez Sarsfield
Estudiantes LP0-2Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield0-3Estudiantes LP
Velez Sarsfield2-0Estudiantes LP
Estudiantes LP1-1Velez Sarsfield
Estudiantes LP2-0Velez Sarsfield

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Velez Sarsfield 1544 · Estudiantes LP 1534

	Velez Sarsfield	Draw	Estudiantes LP
Our model	40%	34%	26%
Market	41%	32%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 1.89 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Velez Sarsfield: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Velez Sarsfield	Estudiantes LP
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/56/11%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	1.6 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X2.88

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +5’	2.25	2.88	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Velez Sarsfield 3–1–2 Estudiantes LP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Estudiantes LP	0-1 HT 0-0	Velez Sarsfield
09/07/25 Argentina Super Cup	Estudiantes LP	0-2 HT 0-0	Velez Sarsfield
22/12/24 Argentina Trophy of Champions	Velez Sarsfield	0-3 HT 0-2	Estudiantes LP
24/09/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Velez Sarsfield	2-0 HT 1-0	Estudiantes LP
05/05/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Estudiantes LP	1-1 HT 1-0	Velez Sarsfield
08/05/23 Argentina Liga Profesional	Estudiantes LP	2-0 HT 0-0	Velez Sarsfield

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Velez Sarsfield	7	3	4	0	10	6	13
2	Instituto AC Cordoba	6	4	1	1	5	2	13
3	Gimnasia Mendoza	6	4	0	2	9	5	12
4	Defensa y Justicia	6	3	2	1	8	8	11
5	CA Independiente	6	3	1	2	6	3	10
6	Union Santa Fe	7	3	1	3	12	10	10
7	Newell's	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
8	Boca Juniors	7	2	4	1	7	8	10
9	Deportivo Riestra	7	2	2	3	7	6	8
10	Platense	6	2	2	2	7	10	8
11	Lanus	7	2	1	4	7	8	7
12	San Lorenzo	6	2	1	3	2	4	7
13	Central Cordoba	7	2	1	4	4	7	7
14	Estudiantes LP	6	2	0	4	7	7	6
15	CA Talleres de Córdoba	7	1	2	4	8	12	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Velez Sarsfield	Estudiantes LP
Deportivo Riestra	1-1 D	0-2 L
Defensa y Justicia	1-1 D	3-0 W
Boca Juniors	1-1 D	0-1 L
CA Independiente	1-0 W	0-2 L
CA Talleres de Córdoba	3-1 W	0-0 D
Instituto AC Cordoba	1-0 W	1-0 W
Gimnasia LP	0-1 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Velez Sarsfield (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Velez Sarsfield

DDLWWWDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
24/08	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/08	Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
09/08	Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
04/08	CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
31/07	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
25/07	Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
11/05	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	17	8	L
05/05	Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
27/04	Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional	2-1	2-2	2	10	D

Estudiantes LP

WDWLLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
15/08	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	4-0	7	8	W
08/08	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	0	7	L
06/08	Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
01/08	Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional	3-0	3-0	2	3	W
26/07	CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
10/05	Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
03/05	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
25/04	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
18/04	Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes LP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Velez Sarsfield win (41%). Probabilities: Velez Sarsfield 41%, draw 33%, Estudiantes LP 26%.

How many goals are expected in Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes LP?

The model expects 1.89 goals (Velez Sarsfield 1.08 · Estudiantes LP 0.81), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes LP?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.