Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 06/09, 22:00

Prediction: Gimnasia LP vs CA Tigre

Team pages: Gimnasia LP · CA Tigre

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Gimnasia LP1.19

CA Tigre1

1X2

38% 33% 29%

Gimnasia LP Draw CA Tigre

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Gimnasia LP 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWWLLW

CA Tigre 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDLDLWDWDW

Head-to-head

Gimnasia LP 1–3–2 CA Tigre (6 last)

CA Tigre2-2Gimnasia LP
CA Tigre1-1Gimnasia LP
Gimnasia LP1-1CA Tigre
Gimnasia LP0-1CA Tigre
Gimnasia LP3-1CA Tigre
CA Tigre2-0Gimnasia LP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gimnasia LP 1534 · CA Tigre 1484

	Gimnasia LP	Draw	CA Tigre
Our model	39%	32%	29%
Market	38%	33%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gimnasia LP (rating 1534 vs 1484).
H2H favours CA Tigre: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gimnasia LP	CA Tigre
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	0.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.1	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.45

X2.80

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 22.05

Under 21.75

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +4’	2.45	2.80	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia LP 1–3–2 CA Tigre

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	CA Tigre	2-2 HT 1-2	Gimnasia LP
15/09/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	CA Tigre	1-1 HT 0-1	Gimnasia LP
29/04/23 Argentina Liga Profesional	Gimnasia LP	1-1 HT 1-0	CA Tigre
25/09/22 Argentina Liga Profesional	Gimnasia LP	0-1 HT 0-1	CA Tigre
01/02/19 Argentina Superliga	Gimnasia LP	3-1 HT 0-0	CA Tigre
07/04/18 Argentina Superliga	CA Tigre	2-0 HT 1-0	Gimnasia LP

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Argentinos Jrs	6	4	1	1	10	6	13
2	Sarmiento	7	4	0	3	13	12	12
3	Gimnasia LP	7	4	0	3	10	11	12
4	Belgrano	7	3	2	2	7	4	11
5	CA Tigre	6	3	2	1	6	3	11
6	Rosario Central	7	3	2	2	8	7	11
7	Atlético Tucumán	7	2	4	1	4	2	10
8	Huracan	7	2	3	2	5	5	9
9	Barracas Central	6	3	0	3	4	5	9
10	Independiente Rivadavia	6	2	2	2	5	6	8
11	Banfield	6	2	1	3	5	7	7
12	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	7	1	3	3	3	7	6
13	Racing Club	6	1	2	3	5	8	5
14	River Plate	6	1	1	4	4	6	4
15	CA Aldosivi	6	0	2	4	4	9	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gimnasia LP	CA Tigre
Rosario Central	2-1 W	1-1 D
Aldosivi	2-1 W	0-0 D
River Plate	1-0 W	1-0 W
Racing Club	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Gimnasia LP (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gimnasia LP

WWLLWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
22/08	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	0-2	2-3	6	3	L
15/08	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-4	2	8	L
09/08	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
02/08	Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
30/07	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
25/07	Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
14/05	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
11/05	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	0	8	W
03/05	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	9	W

CA Tigre

DDLDLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
15/08	Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
08/08	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
06/08	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
02/08	Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	3-1	0	5	W
25/07	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
03/05	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-1	11	5	D
26/04	Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
21/04	Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-1	0	6	D
12/04	Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gimnasia LP vs CA Tigre?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gimnasia LP win (38%). Probabilities: Gimnasia LP 38%, draw 33%, CA Tigre 29%.

How many goals are expected in Gimnasia LP vs CA Tigre?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Gimnasia LP 1.19 · CA Tigre 1), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Gimnasia LP vs CA Tigre?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.