Football · Brazil Serie B · 08/08, 23:30

Prediction: Botafogo SP vs America MG

Team pages: Botafogo SP · America MG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Botafogo SP1.47

America MG0.83

1X2

51% 29% 20%

Botafogo SP Draw America MG

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo SP 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWDDWL

America MG 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDDLW

Head-to-head

Botafogo SP 2–2–2 America MG (6 last)

America MG1-2Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP2-1America MG
America MG1-0Botafogo SP
America MG3-1Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP1-1America MG
America MG1-1Botafogo SP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo SP 1542 · America MG 1444

	Botafogo SP	Draw	America MG
Our model	51%	29%	20%
Market	51%	28%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Botafogo SP (rating 1542 vs 1444).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo SP	America MG
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.25

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.94 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.52

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:30 +3’	1.80	3.25	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:33 +1’	1.93	3.12	4.58
03:55	1.94▲	3.10▼	4.52▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo SP 2–2–2 America MG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/04/26 Brazil Serie B	America MG	1-2 HT 1-1	Botafogo SP
02/08/25 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	2-1 HT 1-1	America MG
05/04/25 Brazil Serie B	America MG	1-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo SP
10/08/24 Brazil Serie B	America MG	3-1 HT 2-0	Botafogo SP
20/04/24 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	1-1 HT 0-0	America MG
16/01/21 Brazil Serie B	America MG	1-1 HT 0-1	Botafogo SP

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	20	11	7	2	23	12	40
2	EC Juventude	20	10	5	5	22	12	35
3	Operario PR	20	10	5	5	28	25	35
4	Fortaleza	20	10	4	6	23	19	34
5	Vila Nova	20	10	4	6	27	24	34
6	Gremio Novorizontino	20	9	6	5	32	19	33
7	Atletico GO	20	8	7	5	23	20	31
8	CRB	20	8	5	7	31	32	29
9	Goias	20	8	5	7	21	26	29
10	Sport Recife	20	6	11	3	25	19	29
11	Athletic Club MG	20	6	10	4	19	18	28
12	Sao Bernardo SP	20	7	6	7	28	23	27
13	Nautico	20	7	4	9	24	24	25
14	Cuiaba	20	5	10	5	15	15	25
15	Botafogo SP	20	6	6	8	24	21	24
16	Ceara	20	5	7	8	20	25	22
17	Londrina	20	5	5	10	27	31	20
18	Avai	20	5	5	10	21	27	20
19	America MG	20	2	5	13	14	31	11
20	Ponte Preta	20	2	3	15	15	39	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo SP	America MG
Fortaleza	0-1 L	3-0 W
EC Juventude	4-2 W	0-3 L
Londrina	0-0 D	1-1 D
Avai	3-1 W	1-2 L
Ceara	1-0 W	1-1 D
Operario PR	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Botafogo SP (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo SP

DLWWLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
24/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	2-0	4-2	4	4	W
18/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
11/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-3	2	7	D
07/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	6	2	W
01/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	11	4	L
21/06	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
15/06	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	2	7	W
09/06	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
02/06	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	12	6	D

America MG

LLWLLLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
22/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
18/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
03/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
27/06	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
24/06	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
17/06	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	0	3	W
09/06	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	8	1	L
30/05	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo SP vs America MG?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo SP win (51%). Probabilities: Botafogo SP 51%, draw 29%, America MG 20%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo SP vs America MG?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Botafogo SP 1.47 · America MG 0.83), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs America MG?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.