Football · Brazil Serie B · 08/08, 01:30
Prediction: Ceara vs Ponte Preta
Team pages: Ceara · Ponte Preta
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.55Total
Ceara1.94
Ponte Preta0.61
1X2
Ceara
Draw
Ponte Preta
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Ceara
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Ponte Preta
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ceara
1–3–2
Ponte Preta
(6 last)
- Ponte Preta1-1Ceara
- Ceara1-0Ponte Preta
- Ponte Preta3-1Ceara
- Ceara1-1Ponte Preta
- Ponte Preta0-0Ceara
- Ponte Preta3-1Ceara
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ceara 1478 · Ponte Preta 1404
| Ceara | Draw | Ponte Preta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 22% | 10% |
| Market | 69% | 21% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ceara (rating 1478 vs 1404).
- H2H favours Ponte Preta: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ceara | Ponte Preta | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 6.5 | 3.2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 4.9 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ceara 1–3–2 Ponte Preta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/26 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ceara |
| 12/10/24 Brazil Serie B | Ceara | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Ponte Preta |
| 26/06/24 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Ceara |
| 20/08/23 Brazil Serie B | Ceara | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ponte Preta |
| 07/05/23 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ceara |
| 27/09/14 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Ceara |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 23 | 12 | 40 |
| 2 | EC Juventude | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 35 |
| 3 | Operario PR | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 25 | 35 |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 19 | 34 |
| 5 | Vila Nova | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 24 | 34 |
| 6 | Gremio Novorizontino | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 19 | 33 |
| 7 | Atletico GO | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 20 | 31 |
| 8 | CRB | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 32 | 29 |
| 9 | Goias | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 29 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 20 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| 11 | Athletic Club MG | 20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 28 |
| 12 | Sao Bernardo SP | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 28 | 23 | 27 |
| 13 | Nautico | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 24 | 25 |
| 14 | Cuiaba | 20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 25 |
| 15 | Botafogo SP | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 21 | 24 |
| 16 | Ceara | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 25 | 22 |
| 17 | Londrina | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 31 | 20 |
| 18 | Avai | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 27 | 20 |
| 19 | America MG | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 31 | 11 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 39 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ceara | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club MG | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Goias | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| EC Juventude | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Botafogo SP | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Criciuma | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Operario PR | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 4 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ceara
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 23/07 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 18/07 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 14/07 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 05/07 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 14 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 16/06 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 11/06 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 10 | L |
Ponte Preta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 23/07 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 18/07 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/07 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 03/07 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 28/06 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/06 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 10/06 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 02/06 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ceara vs Ponte Preta?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ceara win (69%). Probabilities: Ceara 69%, draw 21%, Ponte Preta 10%.
How many goals are expected in Ceara vs Ponte Preta?
The model expects 2.55 goals (Ceara 1.94 · Ponte Preta 0.61), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Ponte Preta?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.