Football · Hungary NBI Women · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Ujpest (W) vs Szent Mihaly SE (W)

Team pages: Ujpest (W) · Szent Mihaly SE (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Ujpest (W)2.3

Szent Mihaly SE (W)0.59

1X2

75% 18% 7%

Ujpest (W) Draw Szent Mihaly SE (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Ujpest (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLWDWW

Szent Mihaly SE (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLDLWWL

Head-to-head

Ujpest (W) 2–1–2 Szent Mihaly SE (W) (5 last)

Szent Mihaly SE (W)1-1Ujpest (W)
Ujpest (W)3-2Szent Mihaly SE (W)
Ujpest (W)1-0Szent Mihaly SE (W)
Szent Mihaly SE (W)5-4Ujpest (W)
Ujpest (W)1-3Szent Mihaly SE (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ujpest (W) 1553 · Szent Mihaly SE (W) 1488

	Ujpest (W)	Draw	Szent Mihaly SE (W)
Our model	75%	18%	7%
Market	75%	18%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ujpest (W) (rating 1553 vs 1488).
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ujpest (W)	Szent Mihaly SE (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	57/29/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	1.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.20

X5.00

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 19:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.20▼	Bet365 1.20
X	4.33 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	5.50 → 13.00▲	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
08:51 +5’	1.42	4.33	5.50
10:29 +20’	1.33▼	4.50▲	7.50▲
14:00 +2’	1.28▼	4.75▲	8.00▲
19:01 +11’	1.20▼	5.00▲	13.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ujpest (W) 2–1–2 Szent Mihaly SE (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Hungary NBI Women	Szent Mihaly SE (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Ujpest (W)
20/09/25 Hungary NBI Women	Ujpest (W)	3-2 HT 2-0	Szent Mihaly SE (W)
06/10/24 Hungary Cup Women	Ujpest (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Szent Mihaly SE (W)
15/04/23 Hungary NBI Women	Szent Mihaly SE (W)	5-4 HT 2-1	Ujpest (W)
24/09/22 Hungary NBI Women	Ujpest (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	Szent Mihaly SE (W)

Standings · Hungary NBI Women

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MTK Hungaria (W)	6	4	2	0	12	0	14
2	Gyor Eto FC (W)	5	4	1	0	23	4	13
3	Ferencvarosi TC (W)	5	4	1	0	13	2	13
4	Ujpest (W)	6	4	1	1	15	6	13
5	Puskas FC (W)	6	3	2	1	25	8	11
6	Kispest Honved (W)	6	2	1	3	6	6	7
7	Szent Mihaly SE (W)	6	2	1	3	5	6	7
8	Pecsi MFC (W)	6	2	1	3	7	11	7
9	Fehervar FC (W)	6	2	0	4	7	22	6
10	Astra HFC (W)	6	1	2	3	5	8	5
11	Szekszardi (W)	6	1	0	5	2	18	3
12	Diosgyori VTK (W)	6	0	0	6	7	36	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ujpest (W)	Szent Mihaly SE (W)
Ferencvarosi TC (W)	0-1 L	1-5 L
Astra HFC (W)	2-1 W	0-0 D
Szekszardi (W)	4-1 W	3-0 W
MTK Hungaria (W)	0-2 L	0-1 L
Gyor Eto FC (W)	0-1 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ujpest (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ujpest (W)

WLLWWLWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Fehervar FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	2-0	3-1	2	3	W
30/08	Kispest Honved (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
26/08	Puskas FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
22/08	Diosgyori VTK (W) Hungary NBI Women	3-0	7-1	12	4	W
15/08	Ferencvarosi TC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
08/08	Astra HFC (W) Hungary NBI Women	1-1	2-1	10	1	W
16/05	Szekszardi (W) Hungary NBI Women	4-0	4-1	6	1	W
09/05	MTK Hungaria (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-2	0-2	0	5	L
02/05	Gyor Eto FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
25/04	Diosgyori VTK (W) Hungary NBI Women	3-0	8-0	7	1	W

Szent Mihaly SE (W)

WDLWLDLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Gyor Eto FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	–	0-4	–	–	L
30/08	Pecsi MFC (W) Hungary NBI Women	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
26/08	Szekszardi (W) Hungary NBI Women	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
22/08	MTK Hungaria (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
16/08	Astra HFC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
08/08	MOL Fehervar FC Women Hungary NBI Women	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/05	MTK Hungaria (W) Hungary NBI Women	2-1	3-2	4	2	W
09/05	Ferencvarosi TC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-4	1-5	0	1	L
06/05	Gyor Eto FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	–	0-0	–	–	D
02/05	Budaorsi SC (W) Hungary NBI Women	1-0	2-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ujpest (W) vs Szent Mihaly SE (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ujpest (W) win (75%). Probabilities: Ujpest (W) 75%, draw 18%, Szent Mihaly SE (W) 7%.

How many goals are expected in Ujpest (W) vs Szent Mihaly SE (W)?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Ujpest (W) 2.3 · Szent Mihaly SE (W) 0.59), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ujpest (W) vs Szent Mihaly SE (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.