Football · Hungary NBI Women · 26/09, 15:00

Prediction: MTK Hungaria (W) vs Diosgyori VTK (W)

Team pages: MTK Hungaria (W) · Diosgyori VTK (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.36Total

MTK Hungaria (W)3.18

Diosgyori VTK (W)1.18

1X2

85% 9% 6%

MTK Hungaria (W) Draw Diosgyori VTK (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

MTK Hungaria (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWDDWWL

Diosgyori VTK (W) 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

MTK Hungaria (W) 4–1–1 Diosgyori VTK (W) (6 last)

MTK Hungaria (W)0-2Diosgyori VTK (W)
Diosgyori VTK (W)0-5MTK Hungaria (W)
Diosgyori VTK (W)1-1MTK Hungaria (W)
MTK Hungaria (W)3-1Diosgyori VTK (W)
Diosgyori VTK (W)0-2MTK Hungaria (W)
MTK Hungaria (W)3-0Diosgyori VTK (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MTK Hungaria (W) 1531 · Diosgyori VTK (W) 1359

	MTK Hungaria (W)	Draw	Diosgyori VTK (W)
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	93%	5%	2%

Estimated total (ours) 4.36 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MTK Hungaria (W) (rating 1531 vs 1359).
H2H favours MTK Hungaria (W): 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MTK Hungaria (W)	Diosgyori VTK (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.5	1 / 4.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	0.5 / 1.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/67/22%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	2.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.02

X19.00

241.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4)1.90

2 (+4)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 51.95

Under 51.85

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 08:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.02 → 1.02	Bet365 1.02
X	19.00 → 21.00▲	Bet365 21.00
2	41.00 → 41.00	Bet365 41.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:47 +9’	1.02	19.00	41.00
20:28 +9’	1.05▲	15.00▼	29.00▼
05:38 +6’	1.03▼	17.00▲	34.00▲
08:20 +8’	1.02▼	21.00▲	41.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MTK Hungaria (W) 4–1–1 Diosgyori VTK (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/04/26 Hungary NBI Women	MTK Hungaria (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Diosgyori VTK (W)
27/09/25 Hungary NBI Women	Diosgyori VTK (W)	0-5	MTK Hungaria (W)
29/03/25 Hungary NBI Women	Diosgyori VTK (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	MTK Hungaria (W)
28/09/24 Hungary NBI Women	MTK Hungaria (W)	3-1 HT 0-0	Diosgyori VTK (W)
30/03/24 Hungary NBI Women	Diosgyori VTK (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	MTK Hungaria (W)
07/10/23 Hungary NBI Women	MTK Hungaria (W)	3-0 HT 0-0	Diosgyori VTK (W)

Standings · Hungary NBI Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ferencvarosi TC (W)	8	7	1	0	21	4	22
2	Ujpest (W)	10	7	1	2	23	7	22
3	MTK Hungaria (W)	9	6	2	1	14	2	20
4	Gyor Eto FC (W)	8	6	1	1	30	5	19
5	Puskas FC (W)	9	5	2	2	44	11	17
6	Kispest Honved (W)	9	5	1	3	16	7	16
7	Pecsi MFC (W)	10	4	1	5	13	18	13
8	Szent Mihaly SE (W)	9	3	1	5	8	10	10
9	Fehervar FC (W)	9	3	0	6	12	44	9
10	Astra HFC (W)	9	1	2	6	7	15	5
11	Szekszardi (W)	9	1	0	8	2	29	3
12	Diosgyori VTK (W)	9	0	0	9	9	47	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MTK Hungaria (W)	Diosgyori VTK (W)
Ferencvarosi TC (W)	0-2 L	0-7 L
Ujpest (W)	1-0 W	1-7 L
Gyor Eto FC (W)	1-0 W	1-5 L
Pecsi MFC (W)	0-0 D	1-4 L
Astra HFC (W)	0-0 D	2-3 L
Szent Mihaly SE (W)	1-0 W	0-1 L
Fehervar FC (W)	7-0 W	2-5 L
Kispest Honved (W)	1-0 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: MTK Hungaria (W) (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MTK Hungaria (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Ferencvarosi TC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
16/09	Ujpest (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
12/09	Gyor Eto FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
05/09	Pecsi MFC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	0-0	10	1	D
26/08	Astra HFC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
22/08	Szent Mihaly SE (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
15/08	Fehervar FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	–	7-0	–	–	W
08/08	Kispest Honved (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
27/05	Gyor Eto FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
23/05	Gyor Eto FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	1-1	1-2	3	6	L

Diosgyori VTK (W)

LLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Szent Mihaly SE (W) Hungary NBI Women	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/09	Fehervar FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	1-1	2-5	11	4	L
13/09	Kispest Honved (W) Hungary NBI Women	–	0-5	–	–	L
05/09	Puskas FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	–	2-10	–	–	L
30/08	Astra HFC (W) Hungary NBI Women	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
26/08	Ferencvarosi TC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-4	0-7	0	0	L
22/08	Ujpest (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-3	1-7	2	4	L
15/08	Gyor Eto FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	–	1-5	–	–	L
08/08	Pecsi MFC (W) Hungary NBI Women	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
16/05	Viktoria FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MTK Hungaria (W) vs Diosgyori VTK (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MTK Hungaria (W) win (85%). Probabilities: MTK Hungaria (W) 85%, draw 9%, Diosgyori VTK (W) 6%.

How many goals are expected in MTK Hungaria (W) vs Diosgyori VTK (W)?

The model expects 4.36 goals (MTK Hungaria (W) 3.18 · Diosgyori VTK (W) 1.18), with a 59% chance of under 5 goals.

Will both teams score in MTK Hungaria (W) vs Diosgyori VTK (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.