Football · South Africa Premier · 15/08, 15:00

Prediction: Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Team pages: Kaizer Chiefs · Mamelodi Sundowns

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Kaizer Chiefs0.8

Mamelodi Sundowns1.34

1X2

22% 30% 49%

Kaizer Chiefs Draw Mamelodi Sundowns

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

Kaizer Chiefs 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLDLWLW

Mamelodi Sundowns 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDLDDW

Head-to-head

Kaizer Chiefs 1–2–3 Mamelodi Sundowns (6 last)

Mamelodi Sundowns1-1Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs0-0Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns1-2Kaizer Chiefs
Mamelodi Sundowns1-0Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs0-4Mamelodi Sundowns
Kaizer Chiefs1-2Mamelodi Sundowns

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kaizer Chiefs 1518 · Mamelodi Sundowns 1562

	Kaizer Chiefs	Draw	Mamelodi Sundowns
Our model	21%	31%	48%
Market	22%	29%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mamelodi Sundowns (rating 1518 vs 1562).
H2H favours Mamelodi Sundowns: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kaizer Chiefs	Mamelodi Sundowns
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	2.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.9	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.10

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.41 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.22
2	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:50 +16’	4.10	3.10	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:04 +1’	4.41	3.22	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kaizer Chiefs 1–2–3 Mamelodi Sundowns

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 South Africa Premier	Mamelodi Sundowns	1-1 HT 0-1	Kaizer Chiefs
27/08/25 South Africa Premier	Kaizer Chiefs	0-0 HT 0-0	Mamelodi Sundowns
13/04/25 South Africa Cup	Mamelodi Sundowns	1-2 HT 1-0	Kaizer Chiefs
01/03/25 South Africa Premier	Mamelodi Sundowns	1-0 HT 1-0	Kaizer Chiefs
02/11/24 South Africa League Cup	Kaizer Chiefs	0-4 HT 0-3	Mamelodi Sundowns
28/09/24 South Africa Premier	Kaizer Chiefs	1-2 HT 1-2	Mamelodi Sundowns

Standings · South Africa Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kaizer Chiefs	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
2	Orlando Pirates	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
3	Polokwane City	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
4	Amazulu	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Mamelodi Sundowns	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
6	Milford FC	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
6	Sekhukhune United FC	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
8	Chippa United	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
9	Golden Arrows	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
10	Marumo Gallants	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	TS Galaxy	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
12	Stellenbosch FC	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
13	Richards Bay FC	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	Siwelele FC	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
15	Durban City	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
16	Kruger United	2	0	1	1	1	3	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Kaizer Chiefs

LDWWLDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Sekhukhune United FC South Africa Premier	0-0	2-0	2	1	W
09/08	Golden Arrows South Africa Supa 8 Cup	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
01/08	Kruger United South Africa Premier	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
18/07	Elche World Club Friendlies	0-2	1-2	0	3	L
15/07	Al Kholood World Club Friendlies	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
23/05	Chippa United South Africa Premier	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
16/05	Amazulu South Africa Premier	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
10/05	Sekhukhune United FC South Africa Premier	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
06/05	Mamelodi Sundowns South Africa Premier	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
29/04	Siwelele FC South Africa Premier	0-2	0-2	13	4	L

Mamelodi Sundowns

WLWDWDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	TS Galaxy South Africa Premier	1-1	3-2	6	3	W
08/08	Polokwane City South Africa Supa 8 Cup	2-1	2-2	8	4	D
27/07	MC Alger World Club Friendlies	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
24/07	Al Hilal Riyadh World Club Friendlies	0-1	0-2	9	1	L
21/07	Hertha Berlin World Club Friendlies	1-1	1-1	7	0	D
29/05	RB Leipzig World Club Friendlies	0-1	3-1	6	3	W
24/05	FAR Rabat CAF Champions League	1-1	1-1	0	8	D
17/05	FAR Rabat CAF Champions League	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
12/05	TS Galaxy South Africa Premier	2-2	2-3	8	5	L
09/05	Siwelele FC South Africa Premier	5-1	7-4	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mamelodi Sundowns win (49%). Probabilities: Kaizer Chiefs 22%, draw 30%, Mamelodi Sundowns 49%.

How many goals are expected in Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Kaizer Chiefs 0.8 · Mamelodi Sundowns 1.34), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.