Football · South Korea K League 1 · 27/09, 12:00

Prediction: Gangwon FC vs Incheon Utd

Team pages: Gangwon FC · Incheon Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Gangwon FC1.09

Incheon Utd0.94

1X2

38% 32% 30%

Gangwon FC Draw Incheon Utd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Gangwon FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWDDWDDL

Incheon Utd 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWLDLWLD

Head-to-head

Gangwon FC 4–1–1 Incheon Utd (6 last)

Incheon Utd0-1Gangwon FC
Incheon Utd1-3Gangwon FC
Incheon Utd0-1Gangwon FC
Gangwon FC4-1Incheon Utd
Gangwon FC1-1Incheon Utd
Incheon Utd1-0Gangwon FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gangwon FC 1500 · Incheon Utd 1468

	Gangwon FC	Draw	Incheon Utd
Our model	37%	33%	29%
Market	39%	31%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gangwon FC: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gangwon FC	Incheon Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.2	1.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.44
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.17 ★
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.09

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:22 +3’	2.38	3.00	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:16 +658’	2.49	3.15	3.04
17:07 +5’	2.45▼	3.16▲	3.08▲
10:04 +12’	2.43▼	3.16	3.11▲
07:01 +36’	2.44▲	3.17▲	3.09▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gangwon FC 4–1–1 Incheon Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 South Korea K League 1	Incheon Utd	0-1 HT 0-1	Gangwon FC
06/10/24 South Korea K League 1	Incheon Utd	1-3 HT 0-1	Gangwon FC
30/06/24 South Korea K League 1	Incheon Utd	0-1 HT 0-0	Gangwon FC
21/04/24 South Korea K League 1	Gangwon FC	4-1 HT 3-0	Incheon Utd
24/09/23 South Korea K League 1	Gangwon FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Incheon Utd
02/07/23 South Korea K League 1	Incheon Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Gangwon FC

Standings · South Korea K League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Seoul	30	19	5	6	56	25	62
2	Ulsan HD	30	14	5	11	45	40	47
3	Jeju SK	30	12	10	8	35	29	46
4	Jeonbuk Motors	30	11	11	8	38	28	44
5	Gangwon FC	29	10	12	7	36	28	42
6	Daejeon Hana Citizen	30	10	10	10	46	37	40
7	Pohang Steelers	30	11	7	12	28	34	40
8	FC Anyang	30	9	11	10	38	47	38
9	Incheon Utd	29	10	8	11	36	33	38
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	30	5	18	7	30	36	33
11	Bucheon	30	7	11	12	31	40	32
12	Gwangju FC	30	1	12	17	21	63	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gangwon FC	Incheon Utd
Jeju SK	0-1 L	3-3 D
Gimcheon Sangmu FC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Jeonbuk Motors	1-1 D	1-1 D
FC Anyang	3-0 W	1-2 L
Gwangju FC	2-2 D	1-0 W
Ulsan HD	3-2 W	1-2 L
Bucheon	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Incheon Utd (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gangwon FC

DLLWDDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
13/09	Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1	0-2	2-2	5	4	D
09/09	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
06/09	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	1-0	3-0	2	0	W
30/08	Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
26/08	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	0-2	2-2	12	3	D
16/08	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
01/08	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	0-1	0-3	6	6	L
26/07	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	0-2	1-2	10	2	L
21/07	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	1-1	1-1	2	3	D

Incheon Utd

DDDWLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
12/09	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-2	9	0	L
08/09	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
05/09	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
30/08	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
26/08	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
23/08	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
16/08	Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
02/08	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	2-2	3-3	5	5	D
26/07	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	0-1	1-1	8	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gangwon FC vs Incheon Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gangwon FC win (38%). Probabilities: Gangwon FC 38%, draw 32%, Incheon Utd 30%.

How many goals are expected in Gangwon FC vs Incheon Utd?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Gangwon FC 1.09 · Incheon Utd 0.94), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Incheon Utd?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.