Football · South Korea K League 1 · 20/09, 12:00

Prediction: Incheon Utd vs Daejeon Hana Citizen

Team pages: Incheon Utd · Daejeon Hana Citizen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Incheon Utd1.38

Daejeon Hana Citizen1.51

1X2

34% 27% 39%

Incheon Utd Draw Daejeon Hana Citizen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Incheon Utd 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLDLWL

Daejeon Hana Citizen 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWLWWD

Head-to-head

Incheon Utd 2–1–3 Daejeon Hana Citizen (6 last)

Daejeon Hana Citizen0-0Incheon Utd
Incheon Utd1-3Daejeon Hana Citizen
Incheon Utd1-2Daejeon Hana Citizen
Daejeon Hana Citizen2-1Incheon Utd
Daejeon Hana Citizen0-1Incheon Utd
Incheon Utd2-0Daejeon Hana Citizen

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daejeon Hana Citizen (rating 1479 vs 1554).
H2H favours Daejeon Hana Citizen: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Incheon Utd	Daejeon Hana Citizen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	2.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/90/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.4	3.2 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.96

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:22

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.76 → 2.76	Pinn 2.76
X	3.38 → 3.38	Pinn 3.38
2	2.56 → 2.56	Pinn 2.56

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +8’	2.76	3.38	2.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Incheon Utd 2–1–3 Daejeon Hana Citizen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/05/26 South Korea K League 1	Daejeon Hana Citizen	0-0 HT 0-0	Incheon Utd
18/03/26 South Korea K League 1	Incheon Utd	1-3 HT 1-1	Daejeon Hana Citizen
10/11/24 South Korea K League 1	Incheon Utd	1-2 HT 1-2	Daejeon Hana Citizen
17/08/24 South Korea K League 1	Daejeon Hana Citizen	2-1 HT 1-0	Incheon Utd
18/05/24 South Korea K League 1	Daejeon Hana Citizen	0-1 HT 0-0	Incheon Utd
30/03/24 South Korea K League 1	Incheon Utd	2-0 HT 1-0	Daejeon Hana Citizen

Standings · South Korea K League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Seoul	29	19	5	5	55	23	62
2	Ulsan HD	29	14	5	10	44	38	47
3	Jeonbuk Motors	29	11	10	8	36	26	43
4	Jeju SK	29	11	10	8	34	29	43
5	Gangwon FC	28	10	12	6	36	27	42
6	Daejeon Hana Citizen	29	10	9	10	45	36	39
7	Incheon Utd	28	10	7	11	35	32	37
8	Pohang Steelers	29	10	7	12	26	33	37
9	FC Anyang	29	8	11	10	36	46	35
10	Bucheon	29	7	11	11	31	38	32
11	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	29	4	18	7	28	36	30
12	Gwangju FC	29	1	11	17	19	61	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Incheon Utd	Daejeon Hana Citizen
Ulsan HD	1-2 L	2-1 W
Bucheon	2-1 W	5-0 W
FC Seoul	0-1 L	2-4 L
Jeonbuk Motors	1-1 D	0-0 D
FC Anyang	1-2 L	3-2 W
Gwangju FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Gimcheon Sangmu FC	1-1 D	2-3 L
Jeju SK	3-3 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Daejeon Hana Citizen (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Incheon Utd

WDDDWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-2	9	0	L
08/09	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
05/09	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
30/08	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
26/08	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
23/08	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
16/08	Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
02/08	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	2-2	3-3	5	5	D
26/07	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
21/07	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	1-1	2-1	2	5	W

Daejeon Hana Citizen

DLWWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1	0-0	2-2	11	3	D
09/09	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	0-1	3-2	6	2	W
05/09	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	2-0	5-0	5	3	W
30/08	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
26/08	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	0-0	2-1	7	4	W
15/08	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	1-0	2-4	8	6	L
08/08	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
02/08	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	0-0	2-0	8	2	W
25/07	Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
21/07	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Incheon Utd vs Daejeon Hana Citizen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Daejeon Hana Citizen win (39%). Probabilities: Incheon Utd 34%, draw 27%, Daejeon Hana Citizen 39%.

How many goals are expected in Incheon Utd vs Daejeon Hana Citizen?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Incheon Utd 1.38 · Daejeon Hana Citizen 1.51), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Incheon Utd vs Daejeon Hana Citizen?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.