Football · Argentina Torneo A · 05/09, 21:00
Prediction: Sarmiento de Resistencia vs Tucuman Central
Team pages: Sarmiento de Resistencia · Tucuman Central
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.44Total
Sarmiento de Resistencia1.52
Tucuman Central0.93
1X2
Sarmiento de Resistencia
Draw
Tucuman Central
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sarmiento de Resistencia
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Tucuman Central
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sarmiento de Resistencia
1–1–0
Tucuman Central
(2 last)
- Sarmiento de Resistencia1-0Tucuman Central
- Tucuman Central1-1Sarmiento de Resistencia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sarmiento de Resistencia 1464 · Tucuman Central 1418
| Sarmiento de Resistencia | Draw | Tucuman Central | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Market | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sarmiento de Resistencia (rating 1464 vs 1418).
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarmiento de Resistencia | Tucuman Central | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.8 | 1 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.6 | 2.2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.3 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarmiento de Resistencia 1–1–0 Tucuman Central
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/26 Argentina Torneo A | Sarmiento de Resistencia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tucuman Central |
| 25/04/26 Argentina Torneo A | Tucuman Central | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sarmiento de Resistencia |
Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Relegation round, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia y Esgrima | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 2 | Boca Unidos | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Defensores Puerto Vilelas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 4 | Escobar FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| 5 | Club Atlético El Linqueño | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Independiente Chivilcoy | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Sarmiento de Resistencia | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 3 |
| 9 | Tucuman Central | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sarmiento de Resistencia | Tucuman Central |
|---|---|---|
| Boca Unidos | 0-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Independiente Chivilcoy | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Escobar FC | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Defensores Puerto Vilelas | 1-4 L | 3-4 L |
| Sol de America de Formosa | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarmiento de Resistencia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 16/08 | Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 12/08 | Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 08/08 | Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 05/07 | Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 28/06 | Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | San Martin Formosa Argentina Torneo A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
Tucuman Central
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A |
1-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 23/08 | Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 12/08 | Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A |
1-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 02/08 | Gimnasia y Esgrima Argentina Torneo A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | CA Sarmiento de la Banda Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 12/07 | Juventud Antoniana Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 05/07 | Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Sarmiento de Resistencia Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarmiento de Resistencia vs Tucuman Central?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarmiento de Resistencia win (50%). Probabilities: Sarmiento de Resistencia 50%, draw 28%, Tucuman Central 22%.
How many goals are expected in Sarmiento de Resistencia vs Tucuman Central?
The model expects 2.44 goals (Sarmiento de Resistencia 1.52 · Tucuman Central 0.93), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarmiento de Resistencia vs Tucuman Central?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.