Football · Argentina Torneo A · 06/09, 21:00

Prediction: Defensores de Belgrano VR vs San Martin Formosa

Team pages: Defensores de Belgrano VR · San Martin Formosa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.96Total

Defensores de Belgrano VR1.08

San Martin Formosa0.88

1X2

39% 33% 28%

Defensores de Belgrano VR Draw San Martin Formosa

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDWLDWLL

San Martin Formosa 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2–1–2 San Martin Formosa (5 last)

Defensores de Belgrano VR0-0San Martin Formosa
San Martin Formosa1-0Defensores de Belgrano VR
Defensores de Belgrano VR1-2San Martin Formosa
San Martin Formosa1-2Defensores de Belgrano VR
Defensores de Belgrano VR2-0San Martin Formosa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Defensores de Belgrano VR 1507 · San Martin Formosa 1572

	Defensores de Belgrano VR	Draw	San Martin Formosa
Our model	39%	34%	28%
Market	40%	32%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Martin Formosa (rating 1507 vs 1572).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Defensores de Belgrano VR	San Martin Formosa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.8	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.2	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X2.80

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	2.75 → 2.80▲	Bet365 2.80
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:08 +5’	2.25	2.75	3.10
10:40 +25’	2.25	2.80▲	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensores de Belgrano VR 2–1–2 San Martin Formosa

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/08/24 Argentina Torneo A	Defensores de Belgrano VR	0-0 HT 0-0	San Martin Formosa
10/07/22 Argentina Torneo A	San Martin Formosa	1-0 HT 1-0	Defensores de Belgrano VR
27/03/22 Argentina Torneo A	Defensores de Belgrano VR	1-2 HT 0-1	San Martin Formosa
31/01/20 Argentina Torneo A	San Martin Formosa	1-2 HT 0-2	Defensores de Belgrano VR
08/09/19 Argentina Torneo A	Defensores de Belgrano VR	2-0 HT 0-0	San Martin Formosa

Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Main round, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Martin Formosa	5	4	1	0	11	4	13
2	Sol de America de Formosa	5	3	1	1	6	4	10
3	CA Douglas Haig	6	2	2	2	8	7	8
4	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
5	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy	5	2	2	1	3	2	8
6	Defensores de Belgrano VR	6	2	1	3	3	3	7
7	CA Sarmiento de la Banda	5	1	2	2	5	5	5
8	Sportivo Belgrano	6	1	2	3	3	8	5
9	CA Bartolome Mitre	5	0	1	4	2	9	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Defensores de Belgrano VR	San Martin Formosa
CA 9 de Julio Rafaela	0-1 L	2-1 W
Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy	0-1 L	1-1 D
Sportivo Belgrano	2-0 W	2-0 W
CA Douglas Haig	0-0 D	4-1 W
Sol de America de Formosa	0-1 L	2-1 W
CA Bartolome Mitre	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: San Martin Formosa (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Defensores de Belgrano VR

DDWDWLDWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
23/08	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
17/08	Sportivo Belgrano Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
12/08	CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
09/08	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
02/08	CA Bartolome Mitre Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
25/07	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	2-2	9	2	D
13/07	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
05/07	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
27/06	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	1-1	1-1	2	3	D

San Martin Formosa

WWDLWWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A	2-1	2-1	5	2	W
16/08	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
12/08	Sportivo Belgrano Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
08/08	CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
02/08	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
26/07	CA Bartolome Mitre Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
12/07	CA Sarmiento de la Banda Argentina Torneo A	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
05/07	Juventud Antoniana Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
28/06	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
21/06	Sarmiento de Resistencia Argentina Torneo A	2-0	3-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Defensores de Belgrano VR vs San Martin Formosa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Defensores de Belgrano VR win (39%). Probabilities: Defensores de Belgrano VR 39%, draw 33%, San Martin Formosa 28%.

How many goals are expected in Defensores de Belgrano VR vs San Martin Formosa?

The model expects 1.96 goals (Defensores de Belgrano VR 1.08 · San Martin Formosa 0.88), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Defensores de Belgrano VR vs San Martin Formosa?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.