Football · Argentina Torneo A · 06/09, 22:00

Prediction: Boca Unidos vs Gimnasia y Esgrima

Team pages: Boca Unidos · Gimnasia y Esgrima

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.99Total

Boca Unidos1.13

Gimnasia y Esgrima0.86

1X2

41% 32% 27%

Boca Unidos Draw Gimnasia y Esgrima

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Boca Unidos 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWDWWD

Gimnasia y Esgrima 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWDWWD

Head-to-head

Boca Unidos 3–2–1 Gimnasia y Esgrima (6 last)

Gimnasia y Esgrima0-3Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos2-1Gimnasia y Esgrima
Gimnasia y Esgrima1-0Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos0-0Gimnasia y Esgrima
Gimnasia y Esgrima2-2Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos1-0Gimnasia y Esgrima

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boca Unidos 1529 · Gimnasia y Esgrima 1521

	Boca Unidos	Draw	Gimnasia y Esgrima
Our model	40%	33%	26%
Market	42%	31%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 1.99 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Boca Unidos: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boca Unidos	Gimnasia y Esgrima
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	3.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.6	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X2.90

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:25 +11’	2.15	2.90	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boca Unidos 3–2–1 Gimnasia y Esgrima

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/25 Argentina Torneo A	Gimnasia y Esgrima	0-3 HT 0-2	Boca Unidos
21/07/24 Argentina Torneo A	Boca Unidos	2-1 HT 2-1	Gimnasia y Esgrima
24/07/22 Argentina Torneo A	Gimnasia y Esgrima	1-0 HT 1-0	Boca Unidos
17/04/22 Argentina Torneo A	Boca Unidos	0-0 HT 0-0	Gimnasia y Esgrima
25/08/21 Argentina Torneo A	Gimnasia y Esgrima	2-2 HT 1-1	Boca Unidos
02/05/21 Argentina Torneo A	Boca Unidos	1-0 HT 1-0	Gimnasia y Esgrima

Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Relegation round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gimnasia y Esgrima	5	3	2	0	8	0	11
2	Boca Unidos	5	3	2	0	10	3	11
3	Defensores Puerto Vilelas	5	2	2	1	8	6	8
4	Escobar FC	6	2	2	2	5	8	8
5	Club Atlético El Linqueño	5	1	4	0	4	2	7
6	Independiente Chivilcoy	5	1	3	1	4	3	6
7	Sportivo Las Parejas	6	1	3	2	3	3	6
8	Sarmiento de Resistencia	5	1	0	4	3	12	3
9	Tucuman Central	6	0	2	4	8	16	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boca Unidos	Gimnasia y Esgrima
Tucuman Central	2-2 D	4-0 W
Sportivo Las Parejas	1-0 W	0-1 L
Independiente Chivilcoy	1-1 D	0-0 D
Escobar FC	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Boca Unidos (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boca Unidos

WLWLLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
23/08	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
16/08	Sarmiento de Resistencia Argentina Torneo A	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
08/08	Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
01/08	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
26/07	Juventud Antoniana Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
12/07	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	2-0	2-3	–	–	L
05/07	Sarmiento de Resistencia Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
21/06	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
14/06	San Martin Formosa Argentina Torneo A	1-0	3-1	1	4	W

Gimnasia y Esgrima

LLWDLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
23/08	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
16/08	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	2-0	2-0	7	9	W
13/08	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	2-0	4-0	8	2	W
26/07	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
12/07	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
05/07	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A	1-0	3-0	1	6	W
28/06	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
21/06	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boca Unidos vs Gimnasia y Esgrima?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Boca Unidos win (41%). Probabilities: Boca Unidos 41%, draw 32%, Gimnasia y Esgrima 27%.

How many goals are expected in Boca Unidos vs Gimnasia y Esgrima?

The model expects 1.99 goals (Boca Unidos 1.13 · Gimnasia y Esgrima 0.86), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Boca Unidos vs Gimnasia y Esgrima?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.