Football · Chile Segunda · 08/11, 20:00

Prediction: Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning

Team pages: Provincial Ovalle · Santiago Morning

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Provincial Ovalle1.33

Santiago Morning1.08

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Provincial Ovalle Draw Santiago Morning

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Provincial Ovalle 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDDWWLLD

Santiago Morning 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDDDDLDL

Head-to-head

Provincial Ovalle 0–1–0 Santiago Morning (1 last)

Santiago Morning0-0Provincial Ovalle

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Provincial Ovalle 1479 · Santiago Morning 1467

	Provincial Ovalle	Draw	Santiago Morning
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Provincial Ovalle	Santiago Morning
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 5.7	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.6	5.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.16
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.38 ★
2	2.40 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:35 +21’	2.60	3.20	2.40
21:32 +7’	2.35▼	3.20	2.63▲
22:49 +16’	2.15▼	3.20	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:14 +85’	2.16	3.38	2.94

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Provincial Ovalle 0–1–0 Santiago Morning

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Chile Segunda	Santiago Morning	0-0 HT 0-0	Provincial Ovalle

Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Rengo Unido	10	5	3	2	21	16	18
2	Lota Schwager	9	5	2	2	18	8	17
3	General Velásquez	9	3	3	3	10	11	12
4	Santiago Morning	9	1	6	2	10	13	9
5	Provincial Ovalle	8	2	3	3	7	11	9
6	AC Colina	8	2	2	4	7	9	8
7	Real Juventud San Joaquin	9	1	5	3	12	17	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Provincial Ovalle	Santiago Morning
Real Juventud San Joaquin	1-1 D	1-2 L
General Velásquez	1-2 L	0-0 D
CD Rengo Unido	1-5 L	2-2 D
Lota Schwager	2-1 W	1-4 L
AC Colina	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Provincial Ovalle (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Provincial Ovalle

LWLDDWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
24/10	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	1-0	1-2	9	5	L
03/10	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-2	1-5	11	7	L
26/09	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	2-0	2-1	12	9	W
07/09	AC Colina Chile Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
30/08	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
22/08	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
16/08	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
04/07	AC Colina Chile Segunda	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
26/06	Santiago City Chile Segunda	2-1	2-3	1	7	L

Santiago Morning

LDWDDDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	1-1	1-4	2	5	L
24/10	AC Colina Chile Segunda	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
11/10	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	1-2	1-2	12	10	L
12/09	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
06/09	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-2	2-2	5	5	D
30/08	Provincial Ovalle Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
22/08	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
17/08	AC Colina Chile Segunda	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
10/08	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	2-1	2-2	4	6	D
04/07	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	1-0	1-3	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Provincial Ovalle win (41%). Probabilities: Provincial Ovalle 41%, draw 29%, Santiago Morning 30%.

How many goals are expected in Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Provincial Ovalle 1.33 · Santiago Morning 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.