Football · Chile Segunda · 14/11, 22:00

Prediction: Provincial Osorno vs Brujas de Salamanca

Team pages: Provincial Osorno · Brujas de Salamanca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Provincial Osorno1.31

Brujas de Salamanca1.04

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Provincial Osorno Draw Brujas de Salamanca

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Provincial Osorno 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLDLLLWWL

Brujas de Salamanca 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLWDDL

Head-to-head

Provincial Osorno 3–1–1 Brujas de Salamanca (5 last)

Brujas de Salamanca2-1Provincial Osorno
Brujas de Salamanca1-1Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno3-0Brujas de Salamanca
Provincial Osorno2-0Brujas de Salamanca
Brujas de Salamanca0-1Provincial Osorno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Provincial Osorno 1486 · Brujas de Salamanca 1491

	Provincial Osorno	Draw	Brujas de Salamanca
Our model	41%	30%	28%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Provincial Osorno: 3-1-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Provincial Osorno	Brujas de Salamanca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.1	3.3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.7	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.27 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.26
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10	2.10	3.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:28 +8’	2.27	3.26	2.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Provincial Osorno 3–1–1 Brujas de Salamanca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 Chile Segunda	Brujas de Salamanca	2-1 HT 0-1	Provincial Osorno
29/11/25 Chile Segunda	Brujas de Salamanca	1-1 HT 1-0	Provincial Osorno
21/06/25 Chile Segunda	Provincial Osorno	3-0 HT 1-0	Brujas de Salamanca
30/06/19 Chile Tercera	Provincial Osorno	2-0 HT 1-0	Brujas de Salamanca
08/07/18 Chile Tercera	Brujas de Salamanca	0-1 HT 0-0	Provincial Osorno

Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Trasandino de Los Andes	10	5	3	2	20	13	18
2	Deportes Linares	10	5	2	3	13	13	17
3	Santiago City	8	3	3	2	12	9	12
4	Concon National	10	3	2	5	10	15	11
5	Brujas de Salamanca	8	3	2	3	9	11	11
6	Colchagua CD	9	3	1	5	8	9	10
7	Provincial Osorno	9	3	1	5	10	12	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Provincial Osorno	Brujas de Salamanca
CD Trasandino de Los Andes	1-2 L	0-3 L
Deportes Linares	1-0 W	2-0 W
Concon National	3-1 W	0-0 D
Colchagua CD	0-2 L	2-3 L
Santiago City	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Brujas de Salamanca (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Provincial Osorno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda	1-1	1-2	6	10	L
24/10	Deportes Linares Chile Segunda	1-0	1-0	0	8	W
10/10	Concon National Chile Segunda	1-1	3-1	2	2	W
04/10	Colchagua CD Chile Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
13/09	Santiago City Chile Segunda	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
06/09	Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
29/08	CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda	2-1	2-2	7	3	D
16/08	Deportes Linares Chile Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	10	L
08/08	Concon National Chile Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
12/07	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	0-0	2-2	2	7	D

Brujas de Salamanca

WLWWLLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Colchagua CD Chile Segunda	1-1	2-3	8	4	L
31/10	Concon National Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
25/10	Santiago City Chile Segunda	2-1	2-2	12	6	D
04/10	Deportes Linares Chile Segunda	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
26/09	Santiago City Chile Segunda	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
12/09	CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda	0-0	0-3	2	4	L
06/09	Provincial Osorno Chile Segunda	0-1	2-1	12	6	W
02/09	Colchagua CD Chile Segunda	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
22/08	Concon National Chile Segunda	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
11/07	CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda	1-0	2-1	3	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Provincial Osorno vs Brujas de Salamanca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Provincial Osorno win (42%). Probabilities: Provincial Osorno 42%, draw 29%, Brujas de Salamanca 29%.

How many goals are expected in Provincial Osorno vs Brujas de Salamanca?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Provincial Osorno 1.31 · Brujas de Salamanca 1.04), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Provincial Osorno vs Brujas de Salamanca?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.