Football · Chile Segunda · 14/11, 22:00

Prediction: AC Colina vs Provincial Ovalle

Team pages: AC Colina · Provincial Ovalle

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

AC Colina1.28

Provincial Ovalle1.1

1X2

40% 29% 31%

AC Colina Draw Provincial Ovalle

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Colina 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWWLDL

Provincial Ovalle 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDWWLLDW

Head-to-head

AC Colina 2–4 Provincial Ovalle (6 last)

Provincial Ovalle1-0AC Colina
Provincial Ovalle2-1AC Colina
AC Colina2-0Provincial Ovalle
AC Colina2-1Provincial Ovalle
Provincial Ovalle1-0AC Colina
Provincial Ovalle2-0AC Colina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Colina 1483 · Provincial Ovalle 1490

	AC Colina	Draw	Provincial Ovalle
Our model	39%	30%	31%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Provincial Ovalle: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Colina	Provincial Ovalle
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.5	4 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.25

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.36
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.14 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +1’	2.20	3.25	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:28 +8’	2.07	3.36	3.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Colina 2–0–4 Provincial Ovalle

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/09/26 Chile Segunda	Provincial Ovalle	1-0 HT 0-0	AC Colina
04/07/26 Chile Segunda	Provincial Ovalle	2-1 HT 1-1	AC Colina
02/05/26 Chile Segunda	AC Colina	2-0 HT 0-0	Provincial Ovalle
21/10/23 Chile Tercera	AC Colina	2-1 HT 1-0	Provincial Ovalle
26/08/23 Chile Tercera	Provincial Ovalle	1-0 HT 0-0	AC Colina
17/06/23 Chile Tercera	Provincial Ovalle	2-0 HT 0-0	AC Colina

Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lota Schwager	10	6	2	2	20	9	20
2	CD Rengo Unido	10	5	3	2	21	16	18
3	General Velásquez	9	3	3	3	10	11	12
4	Provincial Ovalle	9	3	3	3	9	12	12
5	Santiago Morning	10	1	6	3	11	15	9
6	AC Colina	9	2	2	5	8	11	8
7	Real Juventud San Joaquin	9	1	5	3	12	17	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Colina	Provincial Ovalle
Lota Schwager	1-2 L	2-1 W
Santiago Morning	1-1 D	2-1 W
CD Rengo Unido	1-2 L	1-5 L
General Velásquez	3-2 W	1-2 L
Real Juventud San Joaquin	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AC Colina (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Colina

WLLDLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
24/10	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
11/10	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-0	1-2	8	8	L
04/10	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	1-0	3-2	9	5	W
27/09	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
07/09	Provincial Ovalle Chile Segunda	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
29/08	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
17/08	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
08/08	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
12/07	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	2-0	5-1	5	2	W

Provincial Ovalle

WLDDWWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
01/11	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
24/10	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	1-0	1-2	9	5	L
03/10	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-2	1-5	11	7	L
26/09	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	2-0	2-1	12	9	W
07/09	AC Colina Chile Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
30/08	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
22/08	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
16/08	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
04/07	AC Colina Chile Segunda	1-1	2-1	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Colina vs Provincial Ovalle?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Colina win (40%). Probabilities: AC Colina 40%, draw 29%, Provincial Ovalle 31%.

How many goals are expected in AC Colina vs Provincial Ovalle?

The model expects 2.39 goals (AC Colina 1.28 · Provincial Ovalle 1.1), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Colina vs Provincial Ovalle?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.