Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 29/07, 21:30

Prediction: Atletico El Vigia vs CD Lara

Team pages: Atletico El Vigia · CD Lara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Atletico El Vigia0.96

CD Lara1.88

1X2

18% 24% 58%

Atletico El Vigia Draw CD Lara

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico El Vigia 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

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CD Lara 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atletico El Vigia 0–1–1 CD Lara (2 last)

CD Lara1-0Atletico El Vigia
Atletico El Vigia2-2CD Lara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico El Vigia 1404 · CD Lara 1564

	Atletico El Vigia	Draw	CD Lara
Our model	18%	24%	58%
Market	18%	24%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Lara (rating 1404 vs 1564).
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico El Vigia	CD Lara
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 2.5	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	2.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.70

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:13 +53’	5.00	3.70	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico El Vigia 0–1–1 CD Lara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	CD Lara	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico El Vigia
01/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	2-2 HT 0-1	CD Lara

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	17	10	5	2	28	15	35
2	Urena SC	17	9	6	2	29	16	33
3	Barquisimeto	17	9	5	3	26	15	32
4	Yaracuyanos	17	7	4	6	21	18	25
5	Zamora II	16	6	6	4	25	21	24
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	17	6	3	8	22	22	21
7	Atletico Barinas	17	6	2	9	32	36	20
8	Real Frontera	17	3	2	12	17	34	11
9	Atletico El Vigia	17	1	5	11	12	35	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico El Vigia	CD Lara
Yaracuyanos	0-0 D	2-1 W
Atletico Barinas	1-7 L	4-1 W
Urena SC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Barquisimeto	0-5 L	1-0 W
Zamora II	1-1 D	4-1 W
Academia Puerto Cabello II	0-1 L	1-1 D
Real Frontera	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Lara (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atletico El Vigia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
24/06	Zamora Venezuela Cup	1-4	1-6	5	5	L
31/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-7	3	2	L
24/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
20/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-5	2	6	L
16/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
10/05	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
03/05	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
25/04	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
19/04	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	3	7	L

CD Lara

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	4-1	8	5	W
24/06	Urena SC Venezuela Cup	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
06/06	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	2-3	10	6	L
30/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	0	9	W
24/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	4-1	2	4	W
20/05	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
16/05	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
02/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-1	5	7	W
25/04	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
19/04	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	3-1	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico El Vigia vs CD Lara?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Lara win (58%). Probabilities: Atletico El Vigia 18%, draw 24%, CD Lara 58%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico El Vigia vs CD Lara?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Atletico El Vigia 0.96 · CD Lara 1.88), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico El Vigia vs CD Lara?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.