Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 29/07, 21:30

Prediction: Atletico Barinas vs Real Frontera

Team pages: Atletico Barinas · Real Frontera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

Atletico Barinas2.23

Real Frontera1.21

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Atletico Barinas Draw Real Frontera

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Barinas 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Real Frontera 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atletico Barinas 2–1 Real Frontera (3 last)

Real Frontera0-1Atletico Barinas
Real Frontera4-3Atletico Barinas
Atletico Barinas2-1Real Frontera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Barinas 1522 · Real Frontera 1412

	Atletico Barinas	Draw	Real Frontera
Our model	60%	22%	19%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Barinas (rating 1522 vs 1412).
H2H favours Atletico Barinas: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Barinas	Real Frontera
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.8	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	1.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.80

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:36 +30’	1.53	3.80	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Barinas 2–0–1 Real Frontera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/06/26 Venezuela Cup	Real Frontera	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Barinas
26/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Real Frontera	4-3 HT 2-2	Atletico Barinas
01/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico Barinas	2-1 HT 0-1	Real Frontera

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	17	10	5	2	28	15	35
2	Urena SC	17	9	6	2	29	16	33
3	Barquisimeto	17	9	5	3	26	15	32
4	Yaracuyanos	17	7	4	6	21	18	25
5	Zamora II	16	6	6	4	25	21	24
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	17	6	3	8	22	22	21
7	Atletico Barinas	17	6	2	9	32	36	20
8	Real Frontera	17	3	2	12	17	34	11
9	Atletico El Vigia	17	1	5	11	12	35	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Barinas	Real Frontera
CD Lara	1-4 L	0-2 L
Yaracuyanos	2-1 W	1-1 D
Atletico El Vigia	7-1 W	1-0 W
Urena SC	0-1 L	1-5 L
Barquisimeto	2-1 W	1-2 L
Zamora II	2-2 D	0-2 L
Academia Puerto Cabello II	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Barinas (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atletico Barinas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-4	2	5	L
24/06	Real Frontera Venezuela Cup	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
06/06	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
31/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	7-1	7	2	W
20/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
16/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
09/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-2	6	6	D
03/05	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-1	10	6	W
26/04	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-2	3-4	–	–	L
19/04	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-3	4	5	L

Real Frontera

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-3	1-5	7	6	L
24/06	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Cup	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
06/06	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-2	6	7	L
30/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-2	1	1	L
24/05	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
16/05	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
09/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
03/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
26/04	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	2-2	4-3	–	–	W
19/04	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-2	3	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Barinas vs Real Frontera?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Barinas win (59%). Probabilities: Atletico Barinas 59%, draw 23%, Real Frontera 18%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Barinas vs Real Frontera?

The model expects 3.44 goals (Atletico Barinas 2.23 · Real Frontera 1.21), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Barinas vs Real Frontera?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.