Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 29/07, 21:30

Prediction: Urena SC vs Academia Puerto Cabello II

Team pages: Urena SC · Academia Puerto Cabello II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Urena SC1.72

Academia Puerto Cabello II0.88

1X2

56% 26% 18%

Urena SC Draw Academia Puerto Cabello II

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Urena SC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Academia Puerto Cabello II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Urena SC 4–2–0 Academia Puerto Cabello II (6 last)

Academia Puerto Cabello II0-3Urena SC
Urena SC1-1Academia Puerto Cabello II
Urena SC2-1Academia Puerto Cabello II
Academia Puerto Cabello II0-1Urena SC
Urena SC2-0Academia Puerto Cabello II
Academia Puerto Cabello II1-1Urena SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Urena SC 1581 · Academia Puerto Cabello II 1470

	Urena SC	Draw	Academia Puerto Cabello II
Our model	56%	26%	18%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Urena SC (rating 1581 vs 1470).
H2H favours Urena SC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Urena SC	Academia Puerto Cabello II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.7	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	6.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:04 +2’	1.60	3.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Urena SC 4–2–0 Academia Puerto Cabello II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	0-3 HT 0-0	Urena SC
01/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Academia Puerto Cabello II
07/09/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	2-1 HT 1-1	Academia Puerto Cabello II
24/07/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	0-1 HT 0-0	Urena SC
01/06/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	2-0 HT 1-0	Academia Puerto Cabello II
10/04/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-1 HT 0-0	Urena SC

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	17	10	5	2	28	15	35
2	Urena SC	17	9	6	2	29	16	33
3	Barquisimeto	17	9	5	3	26	15	32
4	Yaracuyanos	17	7	4	6	21	18	25
5	Zamora II	16	6	6	4	25	21	24
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	17	6	3	8	22	22	21
7	Atletico Barinas	17	6	2	9	32	36	20
8	Real Frontera	17	3	2	12	17	34	11
9	Atletico El Vigia	17	1	5	11	12	35	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Urena SC	Academia Puerto Cabello II
Real Frontera	5-1 W	2-1 W
CD Lara	1-0 W	1-1 D
Yaracuyanos	1-1 D	0-1 L
Atletico El Vigia	2-1 W	1-0 W
Atletico Barinas	1-0 W	1-2 L
Barquisimeto	0-0 D	2-2 D
Zamora II	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Urena SC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Urena SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	3-0	5-1	4	6	W
24/06	CD Lara Venezuela Cup	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
06/06	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-2	2	6	W
31/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
24/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
20/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
09/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
03/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
26/04	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	3-0	4	9	W
19/04	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-1	6	7	W

Academia Puerto Cabello II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
05/06	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-2	3	8	L
24/05	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
20/05	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
16/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	4	9	L
10/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
03/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
26/04	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-3	5	9	L
18/04	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-2	6	8	L
11/04	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-1	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Urena SC vs Academia Puerto Cabello II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Urena SC win (56%). Probabilities: Urena SC 56%, draw 26%, Academia Puerto Cabello II 18%.

How many goals are expected in Urena SC vs Academia Puerto Cabello II?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Urena SC 1.72 · Academia Puerto Cabello II 0.88), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Urena SC vs Academia Puerto Cabello II?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.