Football · Belarus Premier League · 07/08, 16:45
Prediction: Naftan Novopolotsk vs FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
Team pages: Naftan Novopolotsk · FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Naftan Novopolotsk1.33
FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk1.28
1X2
Naftan Novopolotsk
Draw
FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Naftan Novopolotsk
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Naftan Novopolotsk
3–2–1
FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
(6 last)
- FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk2-0Naftan Novopolotsk
- Naftan Novopolotsk2-0FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
- FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk0-1Naftan Novopolotsk
- Naftan Novopolotsk0-0FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
- FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk0-3Naftan Novopolotsk
- FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk0-0Naftan Novopolotsk
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk (rating 1434 vs 1482).
- H2H favours Naftan Novopolotsk: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Naftan Novopolotsk | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.4 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.4 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | – / 4.7 | – / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Naftan Novopolotsk 3–2–1 FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 Belarus Premier League | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Naftan Novopolotsk |
| 29/11/25 Belarus Premier League | Naftan Novopolotsk | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk |
| 06/07/25 Belarus Premier League | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Naftan Novopolotsk |
| 24/11/24 Belarus Premier League | Naftan Novopolotsk | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk |
| 30/06/24 Belarus Premier League | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Naftan Novopolotsk |
| 30/10/21 Belarus Division 1 | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Naftan Novopolotsk |
Standings · Belarus Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Minsk | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 12 | 33 |
| 2 | FC ML Vitebsk | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 31 |
| 3 | Isloch | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 31 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 15 | 27 |
| 5 | FK Gomel | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 26 |
| 6 | FC Minsk | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 25 |
| 7 | Torpedo Zhodino | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 13 | 23 |
| 8 | FC Vitebsk | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 23 |
| 9 | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 23 | 21 |
| 10 | Neman Grodno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 21 |
| 11 | FC Baranovichi | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 30 | 16 |
| 12 | Slavia Mozyr | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 15 |
| 13 | Dnepr Mogilev | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 25 | 12 |
| 14 | Belshina Bobruisk | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 30 | 11 |
| 15 | BATE Borisov | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 9 |
| 16 | Naftan Novopolotsk | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 34 | 7 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Naftan Novopolotsk | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk |
|---|---|---|
| Dnepr Mogilev | 3-3 D | 1-0 W |
| Dinamo Brest | 2-4 L | 0-3 L |
| BATE Borisov | 0-0 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naftan Novopolotsk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Dnepr Mogilev Belarus Premier League |
1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 19/07 | FC Orsha Belarus Cup |
2-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 03/07 | Dinamo Brest Belarus Premier League |
2-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Maxline Rogachev Belarus Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | FC Baranovichi Belarus Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 12/06 | Isloch Belarus Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 29/05 | Torpedo Zhodino Belarus Premier League |
0-4 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Belshina Bobruisk Belarus Premier League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Slavia Mozyr Belarus Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | BATE Borisov Belarus Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | FC Minsk Belarus Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 26/07 | Neman Grodno Belarus Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | FK Bumprom Belarus Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 12/07 | FC Vitebsk Belarus Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Neman Grodno Belarus Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/06 | FK Gomel Belarus Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 21/06 | BATE Borisov Belarus Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 14/06 | Dnepr Mogilev Belarus Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Dinamo Minsk Belarus Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Dinamo Brest Belarus Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naftan Novopolotsk vs FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Naftan Novopolotsk win (37%). Probabilities: Naftan Novopolotsk 37%, draw 29%, FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 35%.
How many goals are expected in Naftan Novopolotsk vs FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Naftan Novopolotsk 1.33 · FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 1.28), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Naftan Novopolotsk vs FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.