Football · El Salvador Apertura · 16/08, 03:00

Prediction: Alianza FC vs CD Cacahuatique

Team pages: Alianza FC · CD Cacahuatique

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Alianza FC1.9

CD Cacahuatique1.12

1X2

54% 25% 21%

Alianza FC Draw CD Cacahuatique

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWWWLL

CD Cacahuatique 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWDDLWDD

Head-to-head

Alianza FC 5–1–0 CD Cacahuatique (6 last)

Alianza FC2-1CD Cacahuatique
CD Cacahuatique1-1Alianza FC
Alianza FC3-0CD Cacahuatique
CD Cacahuatique1-2Alianza FC
Alianza FC2-1CD Cacahuatique
CD Cacahuatique1-2Alianza FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC 1542 · CD Cacahuatique 1452

	Alianza FC	Draw	CD Cacahuatique
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza FC (rating 1542 vs 1452).
H2H favours Alianza FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC	CD Cacahuatique
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.4	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	6.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.65▼	Pinn 1.71
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	4.00 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.57 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:35 +11’	1.73	3.40	4.00
09:12 +4’	1.65▼	3.50▲	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:44 +1’	1.71	3.48	4.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC 5–1–0 CD Cacahuatique

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/26 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	2-1 HT 0-0	CD Cacahuatique
21/01/26 El Salvador Clausura	CD Cacahuatique	1-1 HT 0-0	Alianza FC
14/12/25 El Salvador Apertura	Alianza FC	3-0 HT 1-0	CD Cacahuatique
07/12/25 El Salvador Apertura	CD Cacahuatique	1-2 HT 0-2	Alianza FC
25/09/25 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	2-1 HT 0-1	CD Cacahuatique
23/07/25 El Salvador Clausura	CD Cacahuatique	1-2 HT 1-1	Alianza FC

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Isidro Metapan	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
2	Internacional Santa Tecla	5	2	3	0	5	2	9
3	CD Luis Angel Firpo	3	2	1	0	7	1	7
4	CD FAS	4	2	1	1	8	4	7
5	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	3	1	2	0	4	2	5
6	CD Cacahuatique	4	1	2	1	8	8	5
7	Municipal Limeno	5	1	1	3	4	7	4
8	Alianza FC	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	CD Aguila	4	0	3	1	4	5	3
10	Atlético Balboa	4	0	3	1	3	5	3
11	Fuerte San Francisco	4	0	3	1	3	7	3
12	CD INCA Aruba	4	0	0	4	1	11	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC	CD Cacahuatique
CD Aguila	0-2 L	2-2 D
Fuerte San Francisco	1-0 W	0-0 D
AD Isidro Metapan	1-1 D	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Alianza FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Real Esteli CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
09/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
06/08	Herediano CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
30/07	Antigua GFC CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
26/07	CD INCA El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
10/05	CD Aguila El Salvador Clausura	0-2	0-2	6	8	L
06/05	CD Aguila El Salvador Clausura	1-2	1-2	2	5	L
01/05	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Clausura	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
26/04	Zacatecoluca FC El Salvador Clausura	2-1	4-2	3	4	W
22/04	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Cup	0-1	1-1	4	4	D

CD Cacahuatique

LLDWDDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
02/08	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-2	7	6	D
28/07	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	2-2	4-2	7	5	W
25/07	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-4	4	3	L
10/05	CD FAS El Salvador Clausura	0-1	1-1	4	12	D
07/05	CD FAS El Salvador Clausura	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
01/05	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Clausura	1-0	3-2	3	6	W
26/04	CD Aguila El Salvador Clausura	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
23/04	CD Hercules El Salvador Cup	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
20/04	CD FAS El Salvador Clausura	0-2	0-3	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC vs CD Cacahuatique?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza FC win (54%). Probabilities: Alianza FC 54%, draw 25%, CD Cacahuatique 21%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC vs CD Cacahuatique?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Alianza FC 1.9 · CD Cacahuatique 1.12), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC vs CD Cacahuatique?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.