Football · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · 25/07, 20:00

Prediction: Central Espanol vs Cerro Largo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Central Espanol1.22

Cerro Largo1.22

1X2

35% 29% 35%

Central Espanol Draw Cerro Largo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Central Espanol 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWLWDD

Cerro Largo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLWWDD

Head-to-head

Central Espanol 1–1–4 Cerro Largo (6 last)

Central Espanol1-3Cerro Largo
Central Espanol0-0Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo1-0Central Espanol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Central Espanol 1502 · Cerro Largo 1503

	Central Espanol	Draw	Cerro Largo
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	36%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cerro Largo: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Central Espanol	Cerro Largo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.6	1.1 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.8	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.20

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:24 +3’	2.60	3.20	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Central Espanol 1–1–4 Cerro Largo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Uruguay Apertura	Central Espanol	1-3 HT 0-1	Cerro Largo
22/09/18 Uruguay Segunda	Central Espanol	0-0 HT 0-0	Cerro Largo
28/04/18 Uruguay Segunda	Cerro Largo	1-0	Central Espanol
15/11/17 Uruguay Segunda	Cerro Largo	3-0	Central Espanol
28/06/17 Uruguay Segunda	Central Espanol	1-0 HT 0-0	Cerro Largo
10/09/16 Uruguay Segunda	Cerro Largo	3-0	Central Espanol

Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Penarol	6	4	1	1	9	3	13
2	Cerro Largo	5	2	2	1	6	2	8
3	Central Espanol	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
4	Racing Club de Montevideo	5	1	4	0	3	2	7
5	Cerro	5	2	0	3	4	8	6
6	Liverpool Montevideo	5	1	2	2	3	4	5
7	Boston River	6	1	2	3	5	9	5
8	Defensor Sporting	5	0	3	2	3	6	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Central Espanol	Cerro Largo
Boston River	0-0 D	3-0 W
Racing Club de Montevideo	1-1 D	0-1 L
Penarol	1-0 W	2-3 L
Cerro	0-1 L	2-0 W
Defensor Sporting	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Central Espanol (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Central Espanol

DLWLWWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
06/06	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	1-1	0	8	D
02/06	Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
24/05	Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
17/05	Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-1	2-1	2	7	W
09/05	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Apertura	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
03/05	Boston River Uruguay Apertura	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
26/04	Cerro Uruguay Apertura	2-1	3-1	1	9	W
18/04	Albion FC Uruguay Apertura	1-0	1-6	2	4	L
12/04	Danubio Uruguay Apertura	0-1	2-2	3	8	D

Cerro Largo

DLLWLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/07	Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
09/06	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
30/05	Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
23/05	Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
17/05	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-1	0-1	1	8	L
12/05	Penarol Uruguay Apertura	1-0	2-3	1	4	L
03/05	Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Apertura	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
26/04	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Apertura	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
20/04	Boston River Uruguay Apertura	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
11/04	Cerro Uruguay Apertura	1-0	1-1	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Central Espanol vs Cerro Largo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Central Espanol win (35%). Probabilities: Central Espanol 35%, draw 29%, Cerro Largo 35%.

How many goals are expected in Central Espanol vs Cerro Largo?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Central Espanol 1.22 · Cerro Largo 1.22), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Central Espanol vs Cerro Largo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.