Football · Italy Serie B · 05/09, 15:00

Prediction: Sudtirol vs Catanzaro

Team pages: Sudtirol · Catanzaro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Sudtirol1.45

Catanzaro1.21

1X2

41% 30% 30%

Sudtirol Draw Catanzaro

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sudtirol 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLLDDDWD

Catanzaro 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLLWLL

Head-to-head

Sudtirol 1–4–1 Catanzaro (6 last)

Catanzaro2-2Sudtirol
Sudtirol2-1Catanzaro
Catanzaro1-1Sudtirol
Sudtirol1-1Catanzaro
Catanzaro3-0Sudtirol
Catanzaro2-2Sudtirol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sudtirol 1510 · Catanzaro 1472

	Sudtirol	Draw	Catanzaro
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	40%	31%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sudtirol	Catanzaro
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.4	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	2.2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.18 ★
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:27 +3’	2.30	3.00	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:22 +2’	2.29	3.18	3.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sudtirol 1–4–1 Catanzaro

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Coppa Italia	Catanzaro	2-2 HT 1-1	Sudtirol
31/01/26 Italy Serie B	Sudtirol	2-1 HT 2-1	Catanzaro
24/08/25 Italy Serie B	Catanzaro	1-1 HT 0-1	Sudtirol
12/01/25 Italy Serie B	Sudtirol	1-1 HT 1-1	Catanzaro
27/10/24 Italy Serie B	Catanzaro	3-0 HT 3-0	Sudtirol
17/02/24 Italy Serie B	Catanzaro	2-2 HT 1-1	Sudtirol

Standings · Italy Serie B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Modena	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
2	Mantova	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
3	Palermo	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
4	Ascoli	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
4	Cesena	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	Padova	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
6	Sudtirol	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Avellino	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
9	Arezzo	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
10	Pisa	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	Empoli	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
12	Vicenza	2	1	0	1	3	5	3
13	Juve Stabia	2	1	0	1	2	2	1
14	Benevento	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Carrarese	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Verona	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Sampdoria	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
18	Catanzaro	2	0	0	2	3	5	0
19	Virtus Entella	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
20	Cremonese	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sudtirol	Catanzaro
Bari	0-0 D	2-3 L
Spezia	1-6 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sudtirol

DDLLLDDDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Benevento Italy Serie B	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
22/08	Virtus Entella Italy Serie B	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
22/05	Bari Italy Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
15/05	Bari Italy Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
08/05	Juve Stabia Italy Serie B	0-1	1-1	8	1	D
01/05	Sampdoria Italy Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
25/04	Mantova Italy Serie B	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
18/04	Spezia Italy Serie B	1-3	1-6	3	2	L
11/04	Modena Italy Serie B	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
06/04	Cesena Italy Serie B	1-1	1-1	6	3	D

Catanzaro

WLLWWLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Pisa Italy Serie B	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
21/08	Vicenza Italy Serie B	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
29/05	Monza Italy Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
24/05	Monza Italy Serie B	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
20/05	Palermo Italy Serie B	0-1	0-2	1	8	L
17/05	Palermo Italy Serie B	3-0	3-0	6	4	W
12/05	Avellino Italy Serie B	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
08/05	Bari Italy Serie B	1-2	2-3	8	2	L
01/05	Palermo Italy Serie B	2-1	2-3	3	2	L
25/04	Spezia Italy Serie B	1-1	4-2	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sudtirol vs Catanzaro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sudtirol win (41%). Probabilities: Sudtirol 41%, draw 30%, Catanzaro 30%.

How many goals are expected in Sudtirol vs Catanzaro?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Sudtirol 1.45 · Catanzaro 1.21), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Catanzaro?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.