Football · Italy Serie B · 13/09, 15:00

Prediction: Avellino vs Palermo

Team pages: Avellino · Palermo

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
Avellino1.48
Palermo1.56
1X2
34% 29% 37%
Avellino Draw Palermo
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Avellino 5-1-4 (W-D-L)
LDWWLWLLWW
Palermo 6-2-2 (W-D-L)
WDWDWLLWWW
Head-to-head
Avellino 1–2–3 Palermo (6 last)
  • Palermo2-0Avellino
  • Avellino2-2Palermo
  • Avellino1-2Palermo
  • Palermo1-1Avellino
  • Avellino1-0Palermo
  • Palermo1-0Avellino
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avellino 1539 · Palermo 1577
AvellinoDrawPalermo
Our model35%26%38%
Market33%31%36%
Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Palermo: 3-2-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

AvellinoPalermo
Goals for / against (FT)1.1 / 0.91.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 0.20.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/40/20%50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)1.4 / 3.72 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.9 / 0.33.9 / 0.4

Head-to-head (H2H) · Avellino 123 Palermo

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DateHomeScoreAway
05/04/26
Italy Serie B
Palermo2-0
HT 1-0
Avellino
20/12/25
Italy Serie B
Avellino2-2
HT 1-0
Palermo
13/03/22
Italy Serie C Group C
Avellino1-2
HT 1-1
Palermo
31/10/21
Italy Serie C Group C
Palermo1-1
HT 1-0
Avellino
26/05/21
Italy Serie C Play-Offs
Avellino1-0
HT 1-0
Palermo
23/05/21
Italy Serie C Play-Offs
Palermo1-0
HT 0-0
Avellino

Standings · Italy Serie B

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Mantova 3210 637
2 Sudtirol 3210 417
3 Ascoli 3210 427
4 Modena 3201 526
4 Pisa 3201 526
4 Avellino 3201 526
7 Palermo 2200 426
8 Empoli 3201 336
9 Cesena 3120 435
10 Verona 3111 734
11 Padova 3111 344
12 Vicenza 3111 574
13 Cremonese 3102 353
14 Arezzo 3102 493
15 Sampdoria 2011 231
16 Virtus Entella 3012 351
17 Benevento 3012 241
17 Carrarese 3012 241
19 Juve Stabia 3102 251
20 Catanzaro 3003 370

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentAvellinoPalermo
Arezzo 1-2 L 3-2 W
Catanzaro 0-3 L 2-0 W
Record vs common 0 W 0 D 2 L 2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Palermo (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avellino

LDWWLWLLWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
06/09 Modena
Italy Serie B
1-0 1-0 25 W
29/08 Vicenza
Italy Serie B
2-0 3-0 27 W
22/08 Arezzo
Italy Serie B
1-0 1-2 44 L
12/05 Catanzaro
Italy Serie B
0-1 0-3 51 L
08/05 Modena
Italy Serie B
1-0 1-0 62 W
01/05 Empoli
Italy Serie B
0-0 0-1 25 L
24/04 Bari
Italy Serie B
0-0 2-0 84 W
18/04 Mantova
Italy Serie B
0-0 2-0 21 W
11/04 Catanzaro
Italy Serie B
0-0 1-1 68 D
05/04 Palermo
Italy Serie B
0-1 0-2 05 L

Palermo

WDWDWLLWWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
30/08 Arezzo
Italy Serie B
1-0 3-2 44 W
23/08 Juve Stabia
Italy Serie B
1-0 1-0 W
20/05 Catanzaro
Italy Serie B
1-0 2-0 58 W
17/05 Catanzaro
Italy Serie B
0-3 0-3 24 L
08/05 Venezia
Italy Serie B
0-0 0-2 24 L
01/05 Catanzaro
Italy Serie B
1-2 3-2 42 W
25/04 AC Reggiana
Italy Serie B
1-1 1-1 75 D
18/04 Cesena
Italy Serie B
1-0 2-0 61 W
10/04 Frosinone
Italy Serie B
0-0 1-1 76 D
05/04 Avellino
Italy Serie B
1-0 2-0 15 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avellino vs Palermo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Palermo win (37%). Probabilities: Avellino 34%, draw 29%, Palermo 37%.

How many goals are expected in Avellino vs Palermo?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Avellino 1.48 · Palermo 1.56), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Avellino vs Palermo?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.