Football · France Ligue 3 · 21/08, 19:00

Prediction: Granville vs Aviron Bayonnais

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Granville1

Aviron Bayonnais1.07

1X2

33% 30% 37%

Granville Draw Aviron Bayonnais

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Granville 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDDDDDWL

Aviron Bayonnais 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWWLLW

Head-to-head

Granville 0–1–1 Aviron Bayonnais (2 last)

Aviron Bayonnais0-0Granville
Granville0-1Aviron Bayonnais

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Granville 1511 · Aviron Bayonnais 1522

	Granville	Draw	Aviron Bayonnais
Our model	32%	33%	35%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Granville	Aviron Bayonnais
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.5	3.4 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.20

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +8’	2.63	3.20	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Granville 0–1–1 Aviron Bayonnais

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 France National 2	Aviron Bayonnais	0-0 HT 0-0	Granville
22/11/25 France National 2	Granville	0-1 HT 0-0	Aviron Bayonnais

Standings · France Ligue 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Thionville FC	2	2	0	0	7	3	6
2	La Roche VF	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Rouen	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
4	Caen	2	1	0	1	7	4	3
5	Villefranche	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
6	Le Puy	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
7	Versailles 78	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	Bourg-Peronnas	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
9	Valenciennes	2	1	0	1	2	4	3
10	US Orleans 45	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
11	Paris 13 Atletico	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
11	SC Bastia	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
13	Cannes	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
13	FC Fleury 91	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
15	US Quevilly	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
16	Concarneau	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
17	Amiens	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
18	Aubagne Air Bel	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Granville	Aviron Bayonnais
Avranches	1-1 D	2-0 W
La Roche VF	0-0 D	2-0 W
Les Herbiers	2-2 D	2-1 W
AS Montlouis	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aviron Bayonnais (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Granville

DWWDDDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Laval Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-3	2	1	L
16/05	FC Chauray France National 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/05	Avranches France National 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
02/05	La Roche VF France National 2	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
24/04	Les Herbiers France National 2	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
18/04	Stade Poitevin France National 2	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
12/04	Aviron Bayonnais France National 2	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/04	Angouleme France National 2	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
28/03	AS Montlouis France National 2	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
22/03	Saint Malo France National 2	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Aviron Bayonnais

LWLWDWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Saumur Olympique France National 2	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
09/05	Voltigeurs de Chateaubriant France National 2	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
02/05	Bordeaux France National 2	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
25/04	Avranches France National 2	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/04	Les Herbiers France National 2	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
12/04	Granville France National 2	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
08/04	La Roche VF France National 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
04/04	AS Montlouis France National 2	1-0	1-2	9	2	L
28/03	Dinan Lehon France National 2	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
22/03	Lorient II France National 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Granville vs Aviron Bayonnais?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Aviron Bayonnais win (37%). Probabilities: Granville 33%, draw 30%, Aviron Bayonnais 37%.

How many goals are expected in Granville vs Aviron Bayonnais?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Granville 1 · Aviron Bayonnais 1.07), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Granville vs Aviron Bayonnais?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.