Football · France Ligue 3 · 20/08, 20:45

Prediction: Concarneau vs Villefranche

Team pages: Concarneau · Villefranche

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Concarneau1.52

Villefranche0.96

1X2

49% 28% 23%

Concarneau Draw Villefranche

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Concarneau 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDLDWWWLD

Villefranche 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDWLLDLW

Head-to-head

Concarneau 1–5–0 Villefranche (6 last)

Concarneau2-2Villefranche
Villefranche0-0Concarneau
Villefranche1-1Concarneau
Concarneau1-1Villefranche
Villefranche1-1Concarneau
Concarneau4-1Villefranche

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Concarneau 1510 · Villefranche 1491

	Concarneau	Draw	Villefranche
Our model	49%	28%	23%
Market	50%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Concarneau	Villefranche
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.40

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.92 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.43
2	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 3.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
07:34 +9’	1.85	3.40	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +1’	1.68	3.73	4.79
22:05 +2’	1.93▲	3.41▼	3.87▼
11:40 +1’	1.92▼	3.43▲	3.91▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Concarneau 1–5–0 Villefranche

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 France Ligue 3	Concarneau	2-2 HT 1-1	Villefranche
08/08/25 France Ligue 3	Villefranche	0-0 HT 0-0	Concarneau
21/03/25 France Ligue 3	Villefranche	1-1 HT 0-0	Concarneau
23/10/24 France Ligue 3	Concarneau	1-1 HT 0-0	Villefranche
24/03/23 France Ligue 3	Villefranche	1-1 HT 0-1	Concarneau
21/10/22 France Ligue 3	Concarneau	4-1 HT 3-1	Villefranche

Standings · France Ligue 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Thionville FC	2	2	0	0	7	3	6
2	La Roche VF	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Rouen	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
4	Caen	2	1	0	1	7	4	3
5	Villefranche	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
6	Le Puy	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
7	Versailles 78	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	Bourg-Peronnas	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
9	Valenciennes	2	1	0	1	2	4	3
10	US Orleans 45	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
11	Paris 13 Atletico	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
11	SC Bastia	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
13	Cannes	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
13	FC Fleury 91	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
15	US Quevilly	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
16	Concarneau	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
17	Amiens	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
18	Aubagne Air Bel	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Concarneau	Villefranche
US Orleans 45	0-2 L	0-0 D
Caen	0-0 D	0-3 L
Paris 13 Atletico	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Villefranche (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Concarneau

DDDLDWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	US Quevilly France Ligue 3	0-1	1-1	4	8	D
07/08	US Orleans 45 France Ligue 3	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
31/07	Pontivy GSI Club Friendly List	2-1	5-1	–	–	W
25/07	Laval Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
22/07	Guingamp Club Friendly List	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/07	Brest Europe Friendlies	0-2	2-2	7	0	D
11/07	Lorient Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
15/05	Villefranche France Ligue 3	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
09/05	Caen France Ligue 3	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
30/04	Paris 13 Atletico France Ligue 3	0-0	0-0	7	3	D

Villefranche

LDWDWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Paris 13 Atletico France Ligue 3	2-0	2-0	7	8	W
07/08	Bourg-Peronnas France Ligue 3	0-1	2-3	4	3	L
15/05	Concarneau France Ligue 3	1-1	2-2	8	2	D
02/05	Bourg-Peronnas France Ligue 3	0-0	0-1	11	6	L
24/04	Caen France Ligue 3	0-2	0-3	1	3	L
17/04	Paris 13 Atletico France Ligue 3	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
10/04	Stade Briochin France Ligue 3	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
03/04	Rouen France Ligue 3	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
27/03	US Orleans 45 France Ligue 3	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
20/03	Le Puy France Ligue 3	0-3	2-3	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Concarneau vs Villefranche?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Concarneau win (49%). Probabilities: Concarneau 49%, draw 28%, Villefranche 23%.

How many goals are expected in Concarneau vs Villefranche?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Concarneau 1.52 · Villefranche 0.96), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Villefranche?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.