Football · Croatia 1.NL · 31/10, 14:00

Prediction: Jadran LP vs HNK Segesta

Team pages: Jadran LP · HNK Segesta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Jadran LP1.54

HNK Segesta1.35

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Jadran LP Draw HNK Segesta

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Jadran LP 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLWWWDDL

HNK Segesta 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWWDLWW

Head-to-head

Jadran LP 3–1 HNK Segesta (4 last)

HNK Segesta1-0Jadran LP
Jadran LP2-0HNK Segesta
Jadran LP4-1HNK Segesta
HNK Segesta2-3Jadran LP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jadran LP 1517 · HNK Segesta 1531

	Jadran LP	Draw	HNK Segesta
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Jadran LP: 3-0-1.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jadran LP	HNK Segesta
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.6	2.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.3	5.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.25

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
05:05 +9’	2.20	3.25	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jadran LP 3–0–1 HNK Segesta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Croatia 2.NL	HNK Segesta	1-0 HT 0-0	Jadran LP
23/08/25 Croatia 2.NL	Jadran LP	2-0 HT 1-0	HNK Segesta
17/05/25 Croatia 2.NL	Jadran LP	4-1 HT 2-0	HNK Segesta
17/11/24 Croatia 2.NL	HNK Segesta	2-3 HT 1-0	Jadran LP

Standings · Croatia 1.NL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Croatia Zmijavci	10	6	1	3	15	9	19
2	HNK Segesta	10	5	2	3	16	12	17
3	Bijelo Brdo	10	5	2	3	12	9	17
4	Mladost Zdralovi	10	5	2	3	10	10	17
5	Jadran LP	10	4	4	2	17	13	16
6	HNK Cibalia	10	4	4	2	10	10	16
7	Orijent	10	4	3	3	10	9	15
8	NK Opatija	10	4	2	4	12	12	14
9	Karlovac	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
10	NK Kustosija	10	3	4	3	8	8	13
11	Dinamo Zagreb II	10	4	0	6	14	14	12
12	NK Sesvete	10	3	2	5	10	10	11
13	NK Dubrava Zagreb	10	3	2	5	11	13	11
14	Vukovar 91	10	3	2	5	14	19	11
15	NK Dugopolje	10	2	4	4	14	16	10
16	Hrvace	10	2	2	6	8	15	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jadran LP	HNK Segesta
Mladost Zdralovi	0-1 L	3-1 W
NK Dugopolje	4-4 D	2-1 W
NK Sesvete	1-1 D	0-2 L
NK Kustosija	1-0 W	0-0 D
Vukovar 91	3-2 W	0-2 L
Orijent	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jadran LP

DWDLWWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Mladost Zdralovi Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
17/10	NK Dugopolje Croatia 1.NL	2-1	4-4	5	9	D
09/10	NK Sesvete Croatia 1.NL	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
26/09	NK Kustosija Croatia 1.NL	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
19/09	Vukovar 91 Croatia 1.NL	2-2	3-2	8	6	W
12/09	Orijent Croatia 1.NL	1-0	1-0	13	8	W
06/09	Bijelo Brdo Croatia 1.NL	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
02/09	NK Dubrava Zagreb Croatia 1.NL	1-0	1-1	12	7	D
29/08	Hrvace Croatia 1.NL	2-1	4-1	5	4	W
22/08	NK Opatija Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-2	5	7	D

HNK Segesta

WLDLWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	NK Croatia Zmijavci Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
17/10	HNK Cibalia Croatia 1.NL	1-0	4-1	3	8	W
11/10	Dinamo Zagreb II Croatia 1.NL	0-1	1-3	13	4	L
27/09	Karlovac Croatia 1.NL	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
18/09	Mladost Zdralovi Croatia 1.NL	1-1	3-1	6	5	W
12/09	NK Dugopolje Croatia 1.NL	2-1	2-1	4	7	W
05/09	NK Sesvete Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-2	3	8	L
02/09	NK Kustosija Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
28/08	Vukovar 91 Croatia 1.NL	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
22/08	Orijent Croatia 1.NL	2-0	3-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jadran LP vs HNK Segesta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jadran LP win (41%). Probabilities: Jadran LP 41%, draw 27%, HNK Segesta 32%.

How many goals are expected in Jadran LP vs HNK Segesta?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Jadran LP 1.54 · HNK Segesta 1.35), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Jadran LP vs HNK Segesta?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.