Football · Croatia 1.NL · 06/11, 18:00

Prediction: Karlovac vs Vukovar 91

Team pages: Karlovac · Vukovar 91

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Karlovac1.66

Vukovar 911.32

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Karlovac Draw Vukovar 91

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Karlovac 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLLDWWLL

Vukovar 91 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLWLLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Karlovac 1487 · Vukovar 91 1446

	Karlovac	Draw	Vukovar 91
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karlovac (rating 1487 vs 1446).
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Karlovac	Vukovar 91
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:47 +5’	2.05	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Croatia 1.NL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mladost Zdralovi	11	6	2	3	13	10	20
2	NK Croatia Zmijavci	11	6	1	4	17	12	19
3	HNK Cibalia	11	5	4	2	12	10	19
4	HNK Segesta	11	5	3	3	17	13	18
5	Orijent	11	5	3	3	13	11	18
6	Jadran LP	11	4	5	2	18	14	17
7	Bijelo Brdo	11	5	2	4	14	12	17
8	NK Kustosija	11	4	4	3	11	10	16
9	Dinamo Zagreb II	11	5	0	6	17	16	15
10	NK Opatija	11	4	2	5	12	15	14
11	Karlovac	11	4	2	5	12	16	14
12	NK Sesvete	11	3	3	5	12	12	12
13	NK Dubrava Zagreb	11	3	3	5	13	15	12
14	Hrvace	11	3	2	6	11	15	11
15	Vukovar 91	11	3	2	6	16	22	11
16	NK Dugopolje	11	2	4	5	14	19	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Karlovac	Vukovar 91
HNK Cibalia	0-2 L	1-1 D
Orijent	0-2 L	2-3 L
Dinamo Zagreb II	1-0 W	2-6 L
Bijelo Brdo	3-2 W	0-2 L
HNK Segesta	1-1 D	2-0 W
NK Dubrava Zagreb	0-1 L	2-3 L
Hrvace	3-1 W	1-0 W
NK Opatija	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Karlovac (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Karlovac

WDWLLDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	HNK Cibalia Croatia 1.NL	0-1	0-2	1	8	L
24/10	Orijent Croatia 1.NL	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
16/10	Dinamo Zagreb II Croatia 1.NL	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
09/10	Bijelo Brdo Croatia 1.NL	0-1	3-2	5	8	W
27/09	HNK Segesta Croatia 1.NL	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
20/09	NK Dubrava Zagreb Croatia 1.NL	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
12/09	Mladost Zdralovi Croatia 1.NL	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
06/09	Hrvace Croatia 1.NL	0-1	3-1	5	5	W
02/09	NK Dugopolje Croatia 1.NL	0-1	2-2	3	6	D
29/08	NK Opatija Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-1	2	5	W

Vukovar 91

WLDWLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Orijent Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-3	9	6	L
24/10	Bijelo Brdo Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
17/10	NK Dubrava Zagreb Croatia 1.NL	1-2	2-3	4	7	L
10/10	Hrvace Croatia 1.NL	1-0	1-0	0	8	W
27/09	NK Opatija Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
19/09	Jadran LP Croatia 1.NL	2-2	2-3	1	6	L
13/09	NK Croatia Zmijavci Croatia 1.NL	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
05/09	HNK Cibalia Croatia 1.NL	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
02/09	Dinamo Zagreb II Croatia 1.NL	1-3	2-6	4	2	L
28/08	HNK Segesta Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Karlovac vs Vukovar 91?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Karlovac win (44%). Probabilities: Karlovac 44%, draw 27%, Vukovar 91 29%.

How many goals are expected in Karlovac vs Vukovar 91?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Karlovac 1.66 · Vukovar 91 1.32), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Karlovac vs Vukovar 91?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.