Football · Croatia 1.NL · 06/11, 14:00

Prediction: NK Sesvete vs Bijelo Brdo

Team pages: NK Sesvete · Bijelo Brdo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

NK Sesvete1.34

Bijelo Brdo0.95

1X2

45% 30% 26%

NK Sesvete Draw Bijelo Brdo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Sesvete 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLDLDD

Bijelo Brdo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWLDWL

Head-to-head

NK Sesvete 2–1–3 Bijelo Brdo (6 last)

NK Sesvete2-1Bijelo Brdo
Bijelo Brdo2-0NK Sesvete
NK Sesvete1-1Bijelo Brdo
NK Sesvete0-1Bijelo Brdo
Bijelo Brdo1-2NK Sesvete
NK Sesvete1-3Bijelo Brdo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Sesvete 1473 · Bijelo Brdo 1506

	NK Sesvete	Draw	Bijelo Brdo
Our model	45%	30%	25%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bijelo Brdo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Sesvete	Bijelo Brdo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	5.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:46 +4’	2.00	3.10	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Sesvete 2–1–3 Bijelo Brdo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Croatia 1.NL	NK Sesvete	2-1 HT 1-0	Bijelo Brdo
01/11/25 Croatia 1.NL	Bijelo Brdo	2-0 HT 1-0	NK Sesvete
22/08/25 Croatia 1.NL	NK Sesvete	1-1 HT 0-1	Bijelo Brdo
21/03/25 Croatia 1.NL	NK Sesvete	0-1 HT 0-0	Bijelo Brdo
08/03/25 Croatia 1.NL	Bijelo Brdo	1-2 HT 0-0	NK Sesvete
11/10/24 Croatia 1.NL	NK Sesvete	1-3 HT 0-1	Bijelo Brdo

Standings · Croatia 1.NL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mladost Zdralovi	11	6	2	3	13	10	20
2	NK Croatia Zmijavci	11	6	1	4	17	12	19
3	HNK Cibalia	11	5	4	2	12	10	19
4	HNK Segesta	11	5	3	3	17	13	18
5	Orijent	11	5	3	3	13	11	18
6	Jadran LP	11	4	5	2	18	14	17
7	Bijelo Brdo	11	5	2	4	14	12	17
8	NK Kustosija	11	4	4	3	11	10	16
9	Dinamo Zagreb II	11	5	0	6	17	16	15
10	NK Opatija	11	4	2	5	12	15	14
11	Karlovac	11	4	2	5	12	16	14
12	NK Sesvete	11	3	3	5	12	12	12
13	NK Dubrava Zagreb	11	3	3	5	13	15	12
14	Hrvace	11	3	2	6	11	15	11
15	Vukovar 91	11	3	2	6	16	22	11
16	NK Dugopolje	11	2	4	5	14	19	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Sesvete	Bijelo Brdo
NK Dubrava Zagreb	2-2 D	1-0 W
Hrvace	0-0 D	1-2 L
NK Opatija	0-1 L	3-2 W
Jadran LP	1-1 D	1-0 W
NK Croatia Zmijavci	0-2 L	0-1 L
HNK Cibalia	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bijelo Brdo (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Sesvete

LLWWLLDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	NK Dubrava Zagreb Croatia 1.NL	0-0	2-2	7	10	D
23/10	Hrvace Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
16/10	NK Opatija Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
09/10	Jadran LP Croatia 1.NL	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
27/09	NK Croatia Zmijavci Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-2	0	8	L
18/09	HNK Cibalia Croatia 1.NL	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
11/09	Dinamo Zagreb II Croatia 1.NL	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
05/09	HNK Segesta Croatia 1.NL	0-0	2-0	2	8	W
02/09	Mladost Zdralovi Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
28/08	NK Dugopolje Croatia 1.NL	1-2	1-2	8	3	L

Bijelo Brdo

DLWWLWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	NK Kustosija Croatia 1.NL	2-2	2-3	5	7	L
24/10	Vukovar 91 Croatia 1.NL	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
17/10	Orijent Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
09/10	Karlovac Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-3	0	8	L
26/09	NK Dubrava Zagreb Croatia 1.NL	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
19/09	Hrvace Croatia 1.NL	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
11/09	NK Opatija Croatia 1.NL	0-2	3-2	3	5	W
06/09	Jadran LP Croatia 1.NL	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
02/09	NK Croatia Zmijavci Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
28/08	HNK Cibalia Croatia 1.NL	0-1	1-1	4	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Sesvete vs Bijelo Brdo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Sesvete win (45%). Probabilities: NK Sesvete 45%, draw 30%, Bijelo Brdo 26%.

How many goals are expected in NK Sesvete vs Bijelo Brdo?

The model expects 2.3 goals (NK Sesvete 1.34 · Bijelo Brdo 0.95), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Sesvete vs Bijelo Brdo?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.