Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 25/09, 19:00
Prediction: Atletico Madrid B vs Villarreal B
Team pages: Atletico Madrid B · Villarreal B
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Atletico Madrid B1.43
Villarreal B1.35
1X2
Atletico Madrid B
Draw
Villarreal B
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Madrid B
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Villarreal B
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Madrid B
2–1–1
Villarreal B
(4 last)
- Atletico Madrid B1-1Villarreal B
- Villarreal B1-3Atletico Madrid B
- Atletico Madrid B1-0Villarreal B
- Villarreal B3-2Atletico Madrid B
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Madrid B 1503 · Villarreal B 1604
| Atletico Madrid B | Draw | Villarreal B | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villarreal B (rating 1503 vs 1604).
- H2H favours Atletico Madrid B: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Madrid B | Villarreal B | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.2 | 1.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 1.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.7 | 1.8 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Madrid B 2–1–1 Villarreal B
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Atletico Madrid B | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Villarreal B |
| 03/10/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Villarreal B | 1-3 HT 1-3 | Atletico Madrid B |
| 21/02/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Atletico Madrid B | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Villarreal B |
| 24/11/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Villarreal B | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Atletico Madrid B |
Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal B | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Real Jaen | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Real Murcia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Zaragoza | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Atletico Madrid B | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Gimnastic | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Alcorcon | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | UD Ibiza | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 9 | Hercules | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 11 | Real Madrid B | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Antequera | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 13 | Aguilas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 14 | Huesca | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Rayo Majadahonda | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | UE Sant Andreu | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 17 | Juventud Torremolinos CF | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| 18 | Algeciras CF | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
| 19 | CE Europa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 20 | Teruel | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 1 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Madrid B | Villarreal B |
|---|---|---|
| Huesca | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| Hercules | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Algeciras CF | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Madrid B (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Madrid B
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 13/09 | Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
3-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Eldense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 08/05 | Sabadell Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 4-3 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Betis Deportivo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 11 | W |
| 19/04 | Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
Villarreal B
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 04/09 | Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 29/08 | Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Atletico Sanluqueno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | Sevilla Atletico Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Madrid B vs Villarreal B?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Madrid B win (38%). Probabilities: Atletico Madrid B 38%, draw 28%, Villarreal B 34%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid B vs Villarreal B?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Atletico Madrid B 1.43 · Villarreal B 1.35), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid B vs Villarreal B?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.