Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 04/10, 12:00
Prediction: Real Murcia vs Gimnastic
Team pages: Real Murcia · Gimnastic
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.01Total
Real Murcia1.81
Gimnastic1.2
1X2
Real Murcia
Draw
Gimnastic
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 65%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Real Murcia
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Gimnastic
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Murcia
2–1–3
Gimnastic
(6 last)
- Gimnastic2-1Real Murcia
- Real Murcia3-2Gimnastic
- Real Murcia0-1Gimnastic
- Gimnastic1-1Real Murcia
- Real Murcia2-0Gimnastic
- Gimnastic3-2Real Murcia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Murcia 1556 · Gimnastic 1460
| Real Murcia | Draw | Gimnastic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Murcia (rating 1556 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Gimnastic: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Murcia | Gimnastic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.9 | 2.2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.1 | 5.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Murcia 2–1–3 Gimnastic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Gimnastic | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Real Murcia |
| 08/11/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Real Murcia | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Gimnastic |
| 07/06/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Play-Offs | Real Murcia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gimnastic |
| 31/05/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Play-Offs | Gimnastic | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Real Murcia |
| 11/02/23 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Real Murcia | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Gimnastic |
| 09/10/22 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 | Gimnastic | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Real Murcia |
Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal B | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Real Zaragoza | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 12 |
| 3 | Real Jaen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Alcorcon | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Murcia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Hercules | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid B | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | Antequera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 9 | Gimnastic | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | UE Sant Andreu | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | UD Ibiza | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Huesca | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Madrid B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Aguilas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 17 | Algeciras CF | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 4 |
| 18 | CE Europa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| 19 | Teruel | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 2 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos CF | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Murcia | Gimnastic |
|---|---|---|
| CE Europa | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Hercules | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Murcia (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Murcia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Eldense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Betis Deportivo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Sabadell Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 17/04 | Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 11 | 7 | L |
Gimnastic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 20/09 | Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 11/09 | Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
3-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | SD Tarazona Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Sevilla Atletico Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Murcia vs Gimnastic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Murcia win (50%). Probabilities: Real Murcia 50%, draw 26%, Gimnastic 23%.
How many goals are expected in Real Murcia vs Gimnastic?
The model expects 3.01 goals (Real Murcia 1.81 · Gimnastic 1.2), with a 59% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Murcia vs Gimnastic?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.