Football · Finland Kolmonen · 23/07, 18:00

Prediction: HooGee vs Poxyt

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.27Total

HooGee1.89

Poxyt2.37

1X2

31% 20% 49%

HooGee Draw Poxyt

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

HooGee 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWLLLL

Poxyt 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLLWLL

Head-to-head

HooGee 3–2 Poxyt (5 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HooGee 1439 · Poxyt 1511

	HooGee	Draw	Poxyt
Our model	31%	21%	48%
Market	31%	20%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 4.27 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Poxyt (rating 1439 vs 1511).
H2H favours HooGee: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HooGee	Poxyt
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.8	2.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.4	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	25/38/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.5	1.9 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.3	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X4.50

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.88

Under 4.251.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.4

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
08:45 +20’	2.88	4.50	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HooGee 3–0–2 Poxyt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	Poxyt	3-1 HT 0-0	HooGee
05/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	Poxyt	2-1 HT 2-1	HooGee
27/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	HooGee	4-1 HT 2-1	Poxyt
13/09/18 Finland Kolmonen	HooGee	2-1 HT 1-1	Poxyt
08/06/18 Finland Kolmonen	Poxyt	1-3 HT 1-3	HooGee

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	11	8	1	2	46	19	25
2	ESPA	11	8	1	2	30	11	25
3	NuPS	12	5	4	3	22	14	19
4	Poxyt	11	6	1	4	26	22	19
5	LePa	11	5	2	4	19	21	17
6	LoPa	11	5	1	5	16	17	16
7	Gilla FC	11	4	2	5	25	24	14
8	MPS	12	3	3	6	10	19	12
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	11	3	3	5	18	29	12
10	GrIFK Reservi	11	3	2	6	20	24	11
11	HooGee	11	3	1	7	17	31	10
12	EPS Reservi	11	2	3	6	17	35	9

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HooGee	Poxyt
Gilla FC	3-6 L	2-1 W
EIF Academy	2-4 L	3-7 L
ESPA	0-3 L	1-4 L
MPS	0-2 L	2-3 L
LoPa	2-1 W	0-2 L
GrIFK Reservi	2-1 W	4-2 W
EPS Reservi	2-6 L	5-0 W
LePa	1-3 L	1-1 D
PPJ/Ruoholahti	2-2 D	3-0 W
NuPS	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	5 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Poxyt (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HooGee

WDLLWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	2-3	3-6	7	1	L
25/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-4	4	1	L
12/06	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-3	1	3	L
05/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
29/05	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
21/05	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
17/05	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-3	2-6	8	3	L
06/05	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	5	0	L
28/04	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	4	1	D
23/04	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	7	W

Poxyt

DWWWWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-3	2	2	L
16/06	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
10/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
05/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	2-4	3-7	1	4	L
29/05	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-4	2	5	L
22/05	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-0	5	1	W
13/05	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
09/05	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
29/04	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-1	4	1	W
22/04	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HooGee vs Poxyt?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Poxyt win (49%). Probabilities: HooGee 31%, draw 20%, Poxyt 49%.

How many goals are expected in HooGee vs Poxyt?

The model expects 4.27 goals (HooGee 1.89 · Poxyt 2.37), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in HooGee vs Poxyt?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.