Football · Finland Kolmonen · 02/08, 15:00

Prediction: ACF vs IFK Mariehamn II

Team pages: ACF · IFK Mariehamn II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

ACF1.01

IFK Mariehamn II2.48

1X2

13% 17% 69%

ACF Draw IFK Mariehamn II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

ACF 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDLDLLLDWL

IFK Mariehamn II 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

ACF 0–1 IFK Mariehamn II (1 last)

IFK Mariehamn II5-1ACF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ACF 1438 · IFK Mariehamn II 1586

	ACF	Draw	IFK Mariehamn II
Our model	13%	19%	69%
Market	14%	16%	70%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IFK Mariehamn II (rating 1438 vs 1586).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ACF	IFK Mariehamn II
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.7	2.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.1	1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/56/44%	100/0/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.6	4.6 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.50

X5.50

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.95

2 (-1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:00 +7’	6.50	5.50	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ACF 0–0–1 IFK Mariehamn II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	IFK Mariehamn II	5-1	ACF

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Mariehamn II	12	10	0	2	34	11	30
2	EuPa	12	8	2	2	24	8	26
3	PIF Parainen	11	7	2	2	24	10	23
4	SalPa 2	13	6	3	4	19	16	21
5	VG-62	12	7	0	5	18	15	21
6	KaaPo	12	6	0	6	24	24	18
7	MaPS	13	5	2	6	21	23	17
8	Peimari United	13	3	7	3	20	18	16
9	LTU	13	4	2	7	12	18	14
10	PiPS	13	2	2	9	12	29	8
11	JyTy	12	2	2	8	13	33	8
12	ACF	12	1	4	7	8	24	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ACF	IFK Mariehamn II
VG-62	0-3 L	2-0 W
JyTy	2-0 W	5-0 W
Peimari United	2-2 D	3-1 W
KaaPo	3-5 L	1-2 L
PIF Parainen	0-3 L	2-1 W
MaPS	0-3 L	2-3 L
SalPa 2	0-0 D	4-1 W
EuPa	0-1 L	2-1 W
PiPS	0-0 D	3-1 W
LTU	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 5 L	8 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: IFK Mariehamn II (10 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ACF

DDLDLLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
25/06	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
17/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
12/06	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	0-2	3-5	3	1	L
05/06	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
29/05	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-3	4	3	L
22/05	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
14/05	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/05	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
29/04	LTU Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	1	3	D

IFK Mariehamn II

WLWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
18/07	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	5-0	11	1	W
04/07	LTU Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
27/06	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
13/06	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
06/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
23/05	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
16/05	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
09/05	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-3	–	–	L
02/05	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ACF vs IFK Mariehamn II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an IFK Mariehamn II win (69%). Probabilities: ACF 13%, draw 17%, IFK Mariehamn II 69%.

How many goals are expected in ACF vs IFK Mariehamn II?

The model expects 3.49 goals (ACF 1.01 · IFK Mariehamn II 2.48), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ACF vs IFK Mariehamn II?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.