Football · England Southern Premier League South · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: Bath City vs Hanworth Villa

Team pages: Bath City · Hanworth Villa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Bath City1.68

Hanworth Villa1.42

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Bath City Draw Hanworth Villa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Bath City 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLLWD

Hanworth Villa 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWWWWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bath City 1464 · Hanworth Villa 1584

	Bath City	Draw	Hanworth Villa
Our model	43%	26%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hanworth Villa (rating 1464 vs 1584).
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bath City	Hanworth Villa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.2	2.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/0/67%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 4.1	2.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
05:02 +3’	2.10	3.50	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Frome Town	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	Chertsey Town	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Uxbridge	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Hanworth Villa	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	Plymouth Parkway	2	1	1	0	8	1	4
6	Hanwell Town	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
7	Bath City	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Yate Town	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	Taunton Town	2	1	0	1	5	4	3
10	Chichester City	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Poole Town	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Sholing	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
13	Berkhamsted	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
14	Evesham United	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
15	Bracknell Town	2	1	0	1	3	9	3
16	Chippenham Town	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
17	Malvern Town	2	0	1	1	4	7	1
18	Gloucester	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
19	Gosport Borough	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
20	Basingstoke	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
21	Wimborne Town	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
22	Havant and W	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Bath City

LWLWLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-1	11	3	D
08/08	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
01/08	Farnborough UK Friendlies	0-1	0-3	3	0	L
18/07	Plymouth Club Friendly List	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
14/07	Cardiff U23 Club Friendly List	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
25/04	Maidstone Utd England National League South	2-0	2-3	4	2	L
18/04	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
14/04	AFC Totton England National League South	1-2	1-2	6	5	L
11/04	Chesham England National League South	3-2	4-2	1	6	W
06/04	Torquay England National League South	1-2	1-4	2	3	L

Hanworth Villa

DWWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
08/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
01/08	Ashford Town (Middx) UK Friendlies	1-1	4-1	2	1	W
25/07	Welwyn Garden City UK Friendlies	3-1	5-2	2	1	W
21/07	Kingstonian UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
18/07	Carshalton Ath UK Friendlies	0-1	2-1	4	1	W
04/07	Hampton & Richmond Club Friendly List	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	Westfield England Isthmian Division One South	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
29/04	Moneyfields England Isthmian Division One South	3-1	5-1	5	6	W
28/03	Ascot Utd England Isthmian Division One South	1-1	1-1	11	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bath City vs Hanworth Villa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bath City win (43%). Probabilities: Bath City 43%, draw 26%, Hanworth Villa 31%.

How many goals are expected in Bath City vs Hanworth Villa?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Bath City 1.68 · Hanworth Villa 1.42), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bath City vs Hanworth Villa?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.