Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 19/09, 21:00

Prediction: Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano

Team pages: Libertad Asuncion · Sportivo Ameliano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Libertad Asuncion1.53

Sportivo Ameliano0.87

1X2

51% 28% 20%

Libertad Asuncion Draw Sportivo Ameliano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Libertad Asuncion 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWDLWW

Sportivo Ameliano 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWLWDLWW

Head-to-head

Libertad Asuncion 3–1–2 Sportivo Ameliano (6 last)

Sportivo Ameliano2-0Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion1-0Sportivo Ameliano
Libertad Asuncion1-2Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano0-4Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano0-0Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion2-0Sportivo Ameliano

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Libertad Asuncion (rating 1554 vs 1511).
H2H favours Libertad Asuncion: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Libertad Asuncion	Sportivo Ameliano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.5	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:23

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.77▲	Pinn 1.77
X	3.66 → 3.65▼	Pinn 3.65
2	4.34 → 4.30▼	Pinn 4.30

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:18 +19’	1.73	3.66	4.34
17:44 +56’	1.74▲	3.70▲	4.40▲
04:46 +37’	1.77▲	3.65▼	4.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Libertad Asuncion 3–1–2 Sportivo Ameliano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	2-0 HT 0-0	Libertad Asuncion
28/01/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	1-0 HT 1-0	Sportivo Ameliano
18/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	1-2 HT 1-1	Sportivo Ameliano
04/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	0-4 HT 0-3	Libertad Asuncion
28/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	0-0 HT 0-0	Libertad Asuncion
17/02/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	2-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Libertad Asuncion	Sportivo Ameliano
2 de Mayo	2-0 W	1-1 D
Rubio Nu	4-2 W	1-1 D
Nacional Asuncion	0-3 L	1-1 D
Cerro Porteno	1-1 D	1-0 W
Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-0 W	1-0 W
Sportivo Luqueno	2-1 W	2-1 W
Sportivo Trinidense	2-1 W	0-3 L
Guarani Asuncion	1-2 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Recoleta	4-1 W	3-1 W
Olimpia Asuncion	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Libertad Asuncion (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Libertad Asuncion

WWLWWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
06/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	4-2	9	3	W
02/09	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
30/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
24/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
16/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
02/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
30/07	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	4-1	6	4	W
26/07	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	7	1	W

Sportivo Ameliano

DDDWLWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
02/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
30/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
22/08	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
16/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-2	3	7	L
08/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
01/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
28/07	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
25/07	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Libertad Asuncion win (51%). Probabilities: Libertad Asuncion 51%, draw 28%, Sportivo Ameliano 20%.

How many goals are expected in Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Libertad Asuncion 1.53 · Sportivo Ameliano 0.87), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.