Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 07/11, 23:30

Prediction: Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion

Team pages: Libertad Asuncion · Nacional Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Libertad Asuncion1.37

Nacional Asuncion1.03

1X2

44% 28% 28%

Libertad Asuncion Draw Nacional Asuncion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Libertad Asuncion 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLWDLWLL

Nacional Asuncion 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWWLWL

Head-to-head

Libertad Asuncion 2–4 Nacional Asuncion (6 last)

Nacional Asuncion3-0Libertad Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion2-1Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion2-1Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion3-1Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion0-1Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion1-0Nacional Asuncion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Libertad Asuncion 1496 · Nacional Asuncion 1532

	Libertad Asuncion	Draw	Nacional Asuncion
Our model	43%	30%	27%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nacional Asuncion: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Libertad Asuncion	Nacional Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.2 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 23:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.17 ★
X	3.25 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.57
2	3.00 → 3.25▲	Pinn 3.29

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 4.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:10 +13’	2.20	3.25	3.00
23:37 +41’	2.15▼	3.25	3.10▲
19:10 +24’	2.10▼	3.30▲	3.10
23:19 +4’	2.05▼	3.40▲	3.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:11 +17’	2.20	3.52	3.01
00:51 +30’	2.23▲	3.51▼	3.05▲
03:14 +12’	2.24▲	3.47▼	3.06▲
13:16 +26’	2.18▼	3.50▲	3.15▲
23:30 +47’	2.20▲	3.55▲	3.19▲
11:30 +48’	2.21▲	3.57▲	3.20▲
19:30 +4’	2.20▼	3.62▲	3.19▼
23:15 +8’	2.17▼	3.57▼	3.29▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Libertad Asuncion 2–0–4 Nacional Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/09/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	3-0 HT 1-0	Libertad Asuncion
24/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	2-1 HT 2-1	Libertad Asuncion
19/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	2-1 HT 1-0	Nacional Asuncion
28/09/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	3-1 HT 2-1	Libertad Asuncion
19/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	0-1 HT 0-1	Nacional Asuncion
11/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	1-0 HT 0-0	Nacional Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Libertad Asuncion	Nacional Asuncion
Cerro Porteno	0-1 L	0-1 L
Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-2 L	0-2 L
Sportivo Luqueno	1-0 W	3-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense	0-1 L	0-1 L
Guarani Asuncion	2-2 D	2-0 W
Deportivo Recoleta	2-1 W	1-0 W
Olimpia Asuncion	0-1 L	1-1 D
Sportivo Ameliano	1-1 D	1-1 D
2 de Mayo	2-0 W	3-0 W
Rubio Nu	4-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional Asuncion (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Libertad Asuncion

WWDLWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
31/10	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
24/10	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
19/10	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
12/10	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
05/10	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
29/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	3	9	L
19/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
11/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
06/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	4-2	9	3	W

Nacional Asuncion

LWWDDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
31/10	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	3-0	3-0	8	6	W
24/10	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
17/10	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
13/10	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
07/10	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
26/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	13	2	D
18/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
13/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
07/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	6	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Libertad Asuncion win (44%). Probabilities: Libertad Asuncion 44%, draw 28%, Nacional Asuncion 28%.

How many goals are expected in Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Libertad Asuncion 1.37 · Nacional Asuncion 1.03), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.