Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 08/11, 21:00
Prediction: Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta
Team pages: Cerro Porteno · Deportivo Recoleta
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
Cerro Porteno1.9
Deportivo Recoleta0.83
1X2
Cerro Porteno
Draw
Deportivo Recoleta
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Cerro Porteno
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Recoleta
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cerro Porteno
5–1
Deportivo Recoleta
(6 last)
- Deportivo Recoleta1-3Cerro Porteno
- Deportivo Recoleta2-1Cerro Porteno
- Cerro Porteno2-0Deportivo Recoleta
- Cerro Porteno2-0Deportivo Recoleta
- Deportivo Recoleta1-3Cerro Porteno
- Deportivo Recoleta1-3Cerro Porteno
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cerro Porteno 1543 · Deportivo Recoleta 1478
| Cerro Porteno | Draw | Deportivo Recoleta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 24% | 15% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerro Porteno (rating 1543 vs 1478).
- H2H favours Cerro Porteno: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cerro Porteno | Deportivo Recoleta | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6.6 | 2.3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.1 | 3 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerro Porteno 5–0–1 Deportivo Recoleta
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Deportivo Recoleta | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Cerro Porteno |
| 03/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Deportivo Recoleta | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Cerro Porteno |
| 02/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Cerro Porteno | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Recoleta |
| 04/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Cerro Porteno | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Recoleta |
| 26/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Deportivo Recoleta | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Cerro Porteno |
| 29/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Deportivo Recoleta | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Cerro Porteno |
Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guarani Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rubio Nu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Ameliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Luqueno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Trinidense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cerro Porteno | Deportivo Recoleta |
|---|---|---|
| Libertad Asuncion | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Olimpia Asuncion | 0-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Sportivo Ameliano | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Sportivo Luqueno | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| 2 de Mayo | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Sportivo Trinidense | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Rubio Nu | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Guarani Asuncion | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Nacional Asuncion | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Cerro Porteno (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cerro Porteno
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 01/11 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 12 | 7 | L |
| 25/10 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/10 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 11/10 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 06/10 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 16 | 3 | L |
| 27/09 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 07/09 | Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
Deportivo Recoleta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-4 | 1-4 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 31/10 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/10 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 17/10 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 13/10 | Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 05/10 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 28/09 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 20/09 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 07/09 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerro Porteno win (62%). Probabilities: Cerro Porteno 62%, draw 23%, Deportivo Recoleta 15%.
How many goals are expected in Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta?
The model expects 2.72 goals (Cerro Porteno 1.9 · Deportivo Recoleta 0.83), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.