Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 05/11, 01:15

Prediction: Olimpia Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta

Team pages: Olimpia Asuncion · Deportivo Recoleta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Olimpia Asuncion1.97

Deportivo Recoleta0.67

1X2

68% 21% 11%

Olimpia Asuncion Draw Deportivo Recoleta

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Olimpia Asuncion 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDDWW

Deportivo Recoleta 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLLWDW

Head-to-head

Olimpia Asuncion 4–1–1 Deportivo Recoleta (6 last)

Deportivo Recoleta1-2Olimpia Asuncion
Olimpia Asuncion3-2Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta0-1Olimpia Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta1-0Olimpia Asuncion
Olimpia Asuncion1-0Deportivo Recoleta
Olimpia Asuncion0-0Deportivo Recoleta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olimpia Asuncion 1613 · Deportivo Recoleta 1463

	Olimpia Asuncion	Draw	Deportivo Recoleta
Our model	67%	22%	11%
Market	68%	20%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpia Asuncion (rating 1613 vs 1463).
H2H favours Olimpia Asuncion: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olimpia Asuncion	Deportivo Recoleta
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.6	0.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.7	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	3.1 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.30

X4.50

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Pinn 1.32
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.31 ★
2	7.50 → 7.50	Pinn 7.96

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +6’	1.30	4.50	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:00 +28’	1.32	5.31	7.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpia Asuncion 4–1–1 Deportivo Recoleta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	1-2 HT 0-2	Olimpia Asuncion
15/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Olimpia Asuncion	3-2 HT 1-0	Deportivo Recoleta
14/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	0-1 HT 0-1	Olimpia Asuncion
10/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	1-0 HT 0-0	Olimpia Asuncion
31/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Olimpia Asuncion	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Recoleta
01/06/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Olimpia Asuncion	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Recoleta

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olimpia Asuncion	Deportivo Recoleta
Sportivo Ameliano	3-2 W	3-0 W
2 de Mayo	3-0 W	1-1 D
Rubio Nu	0-0 D	1-0 W
Nacional Asuncion	1-1 D	0-1 L
Libertad Asuncion	1-0 W	1-2 L
Sportivo San Lorenzo	3-0 W	0-0 D
Sportivo Luqueno	3-0 W	0-1 L
Sportivo Trinidense	2-1 W	1-3 L
Guarani Asuncion	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Olimpia Asuncion (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Olimpia Asuncion

WDWWWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
18/10	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
11/10	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
07/10	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
29/09	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
20/09	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
13/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	2	4	W
06/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
02/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
29/08	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	2-1	6	5	W

Deportivo Recoleta

LLLLDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
25/10	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
17/10	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
13/10	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
05/10	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	11	4	L
28/09	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
20/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
12/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-3	1	7	L
07/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
03/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-3	1-3	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olimpia Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Olimpia Asuncion win (68%). Probabilities: Olimpia Asuncion 68%, draw 21%, Deportivo Recoleta 11%.

How many goals are expected in Olimpia Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Olimpia Asuncion 1.97 · Deportivo Recoleta 0.67), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Olimpia Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.