Football · England Southern Premier League South · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Havant and W vs Poole Town

Team pages: Havant and W · Poole Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Havant and W1.56

Poole Town1.59

1X2

36% 26% 38%

Havant and W Draw Poole Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Havant and W 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLWLDL

Poole Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDDWLLWWL

Head-to-head

Havant and W 3–1–2 Poole Town (6 last)

Poole Town2-0Havant and W
Havant and W0-3Poole Town
Havant and W2-1Poole Town
Poole Town0-1Havant and W
Poole Town1-3Havant and W
Havant and W2-2Poole Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Havant and W 1405 · Poole Town 1527

	Havant and W	Draw	Poole Town
Our model	36%	26%	38%
Market	36%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Poole Town (rating 1405 vs 1527).
H2H favours Havant and W: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Havant and W	Poole Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.5	1.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/0/100%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.50

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:30 +1’	2.45	3.50	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Havant and W 3–1–2 Poole Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	2-0	Havant and W
06/12/25 England Southern Premier League South	Havant and W	0-3	Poole Town
25/01/25 England Southern Premier League South	Havant and W	2-1	Poole Town
15/10/24 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	0-1	Havant and W
10/02/18 England National League South	Poole Town	1-3 HT 1-1	Havant and W
21/10/17 England National League South	Havant and W	2-2 HT 1-0	Poole Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	6	4	2	0	12	6	14
2	Plymouth Parkway	6	4	1	1	17	6	13
3	Hanworth Villa	6	4	1	1	11	3	13
4	Frome Town	6	4	0	2	10	4	12
5	Taunton Town	6	4	0	2	19	14	12
6	Chichester City	6	4	0	2	11	7	12
7	Chertsey Town	6	3	1	2	12	10	10
8	Berkhamsted	6	3	0	3	9	10	9
9	Poole Town	6	3	0	3	7	9	9
10	Evesham United	6	3	0	3	11	14	9
11	Bath City	6	2	2	2	6	6	8
12	Yate Town	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
13	Gosport Borough	6	2	1	3	7	7	7
14	Basingstoke	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
15	Sholing	6	2	1	3	6	9	7
16	Chippenham Town	6	2	1	3	7	12	7
17	Bracknell Town	6	2	1	3	8	14	7
18	Wimborne Town	6	1	3	2	4	4	6
19	Gloucester	6	1	2	3	8	10	5
20	Hanwell Town	6	1	2	3	4	7	5
21	Havant and W	6	1	1	4	7	12	4
22	Malvern Town	6	0	2	4	7	16	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Havant and W	Poole Town
Chichester City	2-3 L	2-1 W
Gloucester	3-3 D	2-2 D
Plymouth Parkway	1-2 L	0-2 L
Uxbridge	0-2 L	3-3 D
Berkhamsted	0-2 L	3-2 W
Yate Town	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Poole Town (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Havant and W

WDLLLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
22/08	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/08	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
08/08	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
25/04	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
18/04	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/04	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
06/04	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	4-0	–	–	W

Poole Town

WWDDWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
29/04	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
25/04	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	2-1	3-3	2	0	D
18/04	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/04	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Havant and W vs Poole Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Poole Town win (38%). Probabilities: Havant and W 36%, draw 26%, Poole Town 38%.

How many goals are expected in Havant and W vs Poole Town?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Havant and W 1.56 · Poole Town 1.59), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Havant and W vs Poole Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.