Football · England Southern Premier League South · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Gloucester vs Basingstoke

Team pages: Gloucester · Basingstoke

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Gloucester1.9

Basingstoke1.03

1X2

57% 23% 20%

Gloucester Draw Basingstoke

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Gloucester 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLDWDL

Basingstoke 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLWDLW

Head-to-head

Gloucester 2–2–0 Basingstoke (4 last)

Basingstoke0-2Gloucester
Gloucester2-1Basingstoke
Basingstoke1-1Gloucester
Gloucester1-1Basingstoke

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gloucester 1529 · Basingstoke 1494

	Gloucester	Draw	Basingstoke
Our model	57%	24%	19%
Market	57%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gloucester: 2-2-0.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gloucester	Basingstoke
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	5 / 9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +29’	1.57	4.00	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gloucester 2–2–0 Basingstoke

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/11/25 England Southern Premier League South	Basingstoke	0-2	Gloucester
27/09/25 England Southern Premier League South	Gloucester	2-1	Basingstoke
08/02/25 England Southern Premier League South	Basingstoke	1-1	Gloucester
02/11/24 England Southern Premier League South	Gloucester	1-1	Basingstoke

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	6	4	2	0	12	6	14
2	Plymouth Parkway	6	4	1	1	17	6	13
3	Hanworth Villa	6	4	1	1	11	3	13
4	Frome Town	6	4	0	2	10	4	12
5	Taunton Town	6	4	0	2	19	14	12
6	Chichester City	6	4	0	2	11	7	12
7	Chertsey Town	6	3	1	2	12	10	10
8	Berkhamsted	6	3	0	3	9	10	9
9	Poole Town	6	3	0	3	7	9	9
10	Evesham United	6	3	0	3	11	14	9
11	Bath City	6	2	2	2	6	6	8
12	Yate Town	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
13	Gosport Borough	6	2	1	3	7	7	7
14	Basingstoke	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
15	Sholing	6	2	1	3	6	9	7
16	Chippenham Town	6	2	1	3	7	12	7
17	Bracknell Town	6	2	1	3	8	14	7
18	Wimborne Town	6	1	3	2	4	4	6
19	Gloucester	6	1	2	3	8	10	5
20	Hanwell Town	6	1	2	3	4	7	5
21	Havant and W	6	1	1	4	7	12	4
22	Malvern Town	6	0	2	4	7	16	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gloucester	Basingstoke
Evesham United	1-2 L	2-4 L
Hanwell Town	1-0 W	1-2 L
Bracknell Town	2-3 L	2-1 W
Poole Town	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gloucester

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
22/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
08/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
04/05	Farnham England Southern Premier League South	–	1-5	–	–	L
29/04	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-2	3	7	D
25/04	Walton & Hersham England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L

Basingstoke

WWWLLLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-4	–	–	L
22/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	1-2	9	3	L
08/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	2-4	–	–	L
25/04	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	Tiverton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
11/04	Hungerford Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
06/04	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gloucester vs Basingstoke?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gloucester win (57%). Probabilities: Gloucester 57%, draw 23%, Basingstoke 20%.

How many goals are expected in Gloucester vs Basingstoke?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Gloucester 1.9 · Basingstoke 1.03), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gloucester vs Basingstoke?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.